Donald Trump is still behind Kamala Harris in the polls, but the outcome of the presidential election is not a foregone conclusion and the Democratic candidate is continuing his campaign without sparing his rival.
The American presidential election is approaching, but the outcome of the vote is still undecided between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The duel could be played out by just a few points, but for now the polls place the Republican candidate with a slight delay on his rival at the national level. A little over a month before the election, the billionaire who is seeking a second term in the White House is given 45.9% of voting intentions against 48.8% for the Democratic candidate according to the aggregator 270towins.
As always, it is the “swing states” that will decide the outcome of the election. Donald Trump is therefore campaigning in his own way, with aggressive speeches making America the priority, in these states that are, for the most part, part of the Midwest. To convince Republican voters who are committed to his cause, but also voters who are still undecided, the candidate for the White House is banking on a program clearly identified with the American right on the economic level or on the subject of immigration. He thus promised to work towards the relocation of companies and industries to the United States during a meeting in Georgia: “For years, we have watched our jobs stolen by other countries. But now, we are going to attack their jobs and bring them back to America, where they belong,” he declared, promising to “steal jobs from other countries” via tax cuts and “very high” customs duties. As for migration policy, he intends to launch “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants.
But Donald Trump remains more ambiguous on other subjects invested by Kamala Harris: the right to abortion openly defended by her opponent, and the role of the United States in the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Two themes that still deeply divide the United States and therefore the voters.
Tight results in swing states
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the presidential race. While national polls give the Democrat a slight advantage, the vote will be played out at the state level, particularly around 7 to 8 states that change political color from one election to the next: the swing states. The American presidential election is an indirect vote: voters vote for representatives – the electors – whose number depends on the population density of each state (the more populated a territory, the more electors there are) and the latter elect the presidents of the United States of America. When a state is won by one camp, all of its electors are attributed to a single camp, Republican or Democrat, and therefore to a single candidate. It is this number of electors that counts to be elected. You must win at least 270.
Donald Trump leads in three of seven swing states as of September 25, according to the compilation of surveys carried out by 270tonwins: Georgia with a two-point lead (48.1% against 46.1% for Kamala Harris), Arizona with a one-point lead (47.8% against 46.8%) and North Carolina with a half-point lead (47.4% against 46.9%). The Democrat has a lead of between one and four points in the last four swing states. Other territories are being watched closely, because they have high stakes, such as Florida, which has 30 electors and in which Donald Trump is in the lead with 50% of voting intentions, but can still be caught up by the Democrat who is only four points further behind.
What program for Donald Trump?
Economy: lower taxes and development of cryptocurrencies
On September 5, in New York, Donald Trump said he wanted to end “communism”. “Send comrade Harris home to California”. A foretaste of his program, to say the least cash, without concession. On the economic side, the real estate magnate is considering customs duties of “more than 10%” on all imports, to finance a “large tax cut for the middle class, the upper class, the lower class, the business class”, he explains. At the same time, he intends to make the United States, “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies”. Elon Musk would then be entrusted with a complete audit of the American administration. “Elon, because he is not very busy, has agreed to lead this commission to completely eliminate fraud and unnecessary spending in six months (…) This will save trillions of dollars”. In addition, relations with China could slightly harden. Donald Trump wants to revoke the “most favored nation” clause granted to China.
Impact on France and the European Union
Since the 1974 US Trade Act, the US president has been able to impose quotas and customs tariffs up to 15% higher for 150 days on countries that have significant surpluses in their balance of payments with the United States. He could therefore go further than the 10% announced so far. Enough to generate a real economic and trade war between the US and the EU. However, this scenario still seems unlikely, particularly because the EU remains the US’s leading trading partner. This puts the EU in a relatively strong position to discuss with Donald Trump and avoid overly drastic measures from the billionaire. Since the European Union enjoys a very high trade surplus with the United States, it should be able to accept some compromises, even if it means losing a little money, while maintaining at least courteous trade relations with the United States. Donald Trump could instead ask European countries, as has already been suggested in some of his campaign speeches, for a greater contribution to NATO.
Environment: end of regulations and oil galore
Concerning the environment, the former President of the United States could be tempted to lift all possible regulations if he were to gain access to the White House. “For each new regulation, we will eliminate at least 10 old laws, and frankly we will have no trouble doing it”, he assured at the beginning of September. “I will quickly put an end to the great green scam” he has already promised in the event of a second term. “We will drill (for oil) like crazy” he announced to his supporters, in order to “very quickly lower energy prices”. He notably promises to lower energy costs “by half” for Americans.
Immigration: “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants
On the subject of immigration, Donald Trump’s program has the merit of being clear, he wants to launch “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants as soon as he is elected if he were to join the White House. The American billionaire also plans to “use the army” to achieve his ends in order to expel migrants, then to open new detention camps. The automatic birthright will also be canceled in the event of Donald Trump’s election, “for children born to irregular migrants”. Joe Biden’s predecessor recently accused migrants of “poisoning the blood of the country”.
Abortion: Trump cultivates ambiguity
During the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a heated exchange took place on the issue of abortion. Kamala Harris notably criticized the former President of the United States for having appointed three conservative judges to the Supreme Court, in order to end the federal guarantee of voluntary termination of pregnancy in 2022. “I warned that we were going to hear a tissue of lies,” she said. A response to Donald Trump’s assertion that babies would be executed after birth in the United States. “Nowhere in America is a woman going to go to the end of her pregnancy to ask for an abortion. It never happens. It’s insulting to the women of America,” she continued. Donald Trump believes he has “done a huge service” to the country by returning the decision on the right to abortion to the states themselves.
On the other hand, Donald Trump maintains the vagueness regarding the future of abortions in the country. He does not position himself on the line of the American religious right, according to which it would be necessary to promise an outright ban on abortion throughout the country by means of a federal law. “You have to follow your soul and conscience on this issue, but do not forget that you also have to win elections,” he declared.
Discreet on Gaza, Trump would resolve the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours”
If elected, Donald Trump would resolve the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours.” At least, that’s what the man himself claims. The problem is that the former US president has never really explained how he could even calm the conflicts in Ukraine. “I have a very specific plan to stop Ukraine and Russia. And I have a certain idea—maybe not a plan, but an idea—for China,” he said in an interview. As with abortion, Donald Trump remains vague. On the Gaza conflict, he was a staunch defender of Israel during the Hamas attacks in October 2023. Since then, he has not really wanted to get involved on the subject, saying he is not “exactly sure how to love the way” Israel is conducting its offensive in Gaza. Should we understand that the unconditional aid of the USA towards Israel would be called into question in the event of Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House? This is an option.
Confusing remarks that could have harmed Donald Trump this summer
Donald Trump’s campaign brings its share of false information – or fake news – and while some of it strengthens his electorate, most of it works against him with other voters. Virulent towards his rival and not failing to launch personal attacks, the billionaire accused Kamala Harris of having “become black” for electoral reasons, during an exchange with African-American journalists in Chicago at the end of July. The Democratic candidate is also attacked on her abilities to govern and represent the United States internationally since Donald Trump estimated in an interview with the conservative channel Fox News that foreign leaders would “walk all over her” if she came to power.
The fake news relayed by Donald Trump does not only target his competitor, it also concerns the Democratic camp accused of “executing babies” when discussing abortion during the debate against Kamala Harris on September 10. “They support the execution of babies after they are born – well execution and no longer abortion because the baby is born” he wrongly claimed. Some migrant communities have also been targeted with the famous phrase about the inhabitants and migrants of Springfield, a small town in Ohio: “The people who came. They eat the cats. They eat… They eat the pets of the people who live there”. Information denied by local authorities and the journalist mediating during the debate.