LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS 2022. A new poll published this Wednesday, June 8, 2022 gives Together (LREM and allies) neck and neck with the NUPES in the 1st round of the legislative elections. Emmanuel Macron would not be certain of obtaining the majority. The latest info.
The essential
- What will be the result of the legislative elections? Four days before the first round election (June 12), the outcome of the vote is very uncertain. It is all the more so on the repair of the 577 seats which will be known on June 19.
- According to the latest Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey, for The world, the Ensemble coalition (LREM, MoDem, Agir, Horizons) supporting Emmanuel Macron would win 28% of the vote in the 1st round, just ahead of NUPES (27.5%). Above all, the Macronist deputies may not be in the majority in the National Assembly according to the survey, while the union of the left could win up to 200 seats.
- This Wednesday, all the leaders are on the move: Elisabeth Borne in Calvados, Jean-Luc Mélenchon in Caen, Marine Le Pen in the Pyrénées-Orientales and Hérault, while Christian Jacob squeezed in Ain.
- Follow on this page the latest campaign news, polls, and information on how the ballot works.
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Latest poll on the first round of the 2022 legislative elections
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08:59 – For Marine Le Pen, NUPES is a “burkini coalition”
On Europe 1, Marine Le Pen called NUPES a “Burkini coalition.” For the leader of the RN, it is a union “of convenience with Islamist fundamentalism” because “the ideas he (Jean-Luc Mélenchon, editor’s note) advocates are eminently dangerous ideas and would continue the destruction by the bottom.”
08:24 – Sandrine Rousseau: “the challenge? To impose cohabitation”
Guest of the 4 Truths about France 2 this Wednesday morning, Sandrine Rousseau, NUPES candidate for the legislative elections in Paris, figure of EELV, indicated that the ballot has “an issue: [celui] to impose cohabitation”, in particular to counter the pension reform project. “In these cases, the pension would be guaranteed at 60, it would be increased for minimum pensions up to 1500 euros”, he said. she assured.
08:20 – Borne and Mélenchon in Calvados
Calvados, land of indirect political clashes this Wednesday. It is indeed in this department of Normandy that Elisabeth Borne and Jean-Luc Mélenchon go. The Prime Minister is expected in Vire, from 8 p.m., for a meeting in one of the towns of the 6th district of the department where she is a candidate for the legislative elections, while the leader of NUPES will hold, for his part, a meeting in Caen.
08:10 – Justice does not respond to Rachida Dati’s letter about Gilles Le Gendre
The court case had erupted in the campaign a few days ago. Rachida Dati had sent a letter to the prosecutor to implicate LREM deputy Gilles Le Gendre in cases of moral and sexual harassment. Tuesday, June 7, justice decided to classify without follow-up, for the facts qualified as non-denunciation of offenses or crimes and destruction of evidence, the mail of the mayor of the 7th, for lack of offense and complaint received.
08:05 – A participation rate of 46%?
If the ballot promises to be particularly tight, the other unknown remains around participation. While the legislative elections attract less voters than the presidential one, Ipsos-Sopra Steria expects a turnout of less than 50%. Indeed, the institute, which questioned 10,826 people for its survey, judges that “the intention to vote is within a range of 44% to 48%, i.e. an average weight of 46%.” A lack of interest that concerns all age categories and socio-professional categories.
07:58 – Uncertain parliamentary majority for Emmanuel Macron
In its survey, Ipsos-Sopra Steria also looked at voting intentions in the second round and the potential number of seats thus won by each political current. It emerges that Emmanuel Macron is not guaranteed to be in the majority in the National Assembly. A real tipping point four days before the election. According to the institute, Together would win between 275 and 325 seats, knowing that the majority is at 289. For its part, NUPES would make a strong entry into the Bourbon palace with 160 to 200 elected members, when LR would lose its influence considerably (30 to 55 elected), while the National Rally, despite having reached the second round of the presidential election, would only obtain 20 to 55 seats.
07:55 – LREM and NUPES given at the same level in the latest poll
The match between Together and the NUPES is indeed confirmed. The LREM, MoDem, Agir et Horizons coalition, which has organized itself to enable Emmanuel Macron to obtain a parliamentary majority, is once again neck and neck with the union of the left (LFI, EELV, PS, PCF) according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for Le Monde, published this Wednesday, June 8. The survey, which relates to voting intentions in the 1st round, credits the Macronist candidates with 28% of the votes cast, against 27.5% in favor of the Mélenchonists. A close duel which corroborates the other polls, which gave a similar trend. For its part, the National Rally would collect 20% of the vote, ahead of Les Républicains (11%) and Reconquête (5.5%).
07:47 – Hello everyone!
Hello everyone and welcome to Linternaute. Four days before the first round of the legislative elections, all the candidates are entering the home stretch of their campaign, while the outcome of the ballot is more uncertain than ever. Latest poll, declarations, programs… Follow all the news of this election which will make it possible to compose the future National Assembly.
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What are the dates of the 2022 legislative elections?
The first round of the legislative elections is organized in all the constituencies of metropolitan France on Sunday June 12, 2022; the second round takes place on Sunday June 19, 2022. Abroad and in French Polynesia, the first ballot is held ahead of the vote organized in mainland France. In certain departments and overseas collectivities, voters vote in the legislative elections on the Saturday preceding the election in mainland France. These two elections take place only two months after the presidential election, due to the fact that the campaign is in addition to being short and imbued with the dynamics of the presidential election. The nominations of the candidates generally take place at the beginning of May after the sequences of negotiations but the official candidatures must be deposited in the prefecture between May 16 and May 20, at 6 p.m. at the latest. As for the official campaign, it lasts two weeks and starts on Monday, May 30 this year. From this date, municipalities must provide candidates with poster spaces and the media give voice to political parties involved in the legislative race.
How do legislative elections work?
The men and women appointed deputies during the legislative elections are the representatives of national sovereignty for 5 years, except in the event of dissolution interrupting the legislature. The election is carried out by direct universal suffrage, by a so-called uninominal majority ballot in two rounds in each constituency. In each constituency, a candidate is elected and therefore obtains a deputy seat in the first round, if he obtains an absolute majority of the votes cast and a number of votes equal to a quarter of the number of registered voters.
To qualify for the second round, a candidate must have received in the first round a number of votes at least equal to 12.5% of the number of registered voters in the constituency. But if only one candidate fulfills this condition, then the candidate who came in second place can remain in the second round. If no candidate has obtained the 12.5% of registered votes, the two candidates who come first are qualified for the second round. In the second round, the candidate who comes first, with an absolute or relative majority, is elected. In the event of a perfect equality of votes, the oldest candidate is elected.
Who are the candidates for the legislative elections?
6,293 applications were submitted to the prefecture before the deadline, May 20. According to the electoral code, to stand as legislative candidates, a certain number of conditions must be met: be of legal age on the day of the election; enjoy their civic rights; not be in a case of incapacity or ineligibility provided for by law. A candidate is not obliged, on the other hand, to appear on the electoral list of one of the communes of the legislative constituency he is targeting. It is forbidden to run in several constituencies. It is impossible for a mayor or a person exercising local executive functions to stand as a candidate in a legislative election, since the organic law of February 14, 2014 on the non-accumulation of mandates.
What are the results of the polls on the 2022 legislative elections?
It must be understood that legislative elections are of a very singular nature: in reality there are 577 different ballots, one per constituency, with candidates presenting themselves only in a single territory. Polling institutes do not lend themselves to the exercise of carrying out an opinion poll in each constituency. On the other hand, the pollsters always carry out for the legislative studies of voting intentions by political formation at the national level, for the first and the second round. More detailed analyzes follow with projections in number of seats, with wide ranges.
The result of these 2022 legislative elections will determine the political balance of power that will structure Emmanuel Macron’s second term: the re-elected president hopes to once again have an absolute majority in the Assembly, otherwise the program it intends to implement will have to be amended. These legislative elections are in fact a new match between the three formations which now represent the political triptych of the country: the radical left carried by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the parties of the presidential majority united under the label Together! and the sovereignist and nationalist right of Marine Le Pen.
What is the result of the last legislative elections?
The results of the previous legislative elections had allowed Emmanuel Macron to govern with an absolute majority, since 350 seats out of 577 had been allocated, in 2017, to the parties La République en Marche and the MoDem. The Les Républicains party then became the leading opposition party, with 112 seats. The Socialist Party recorded a very severe defeat, with the election of only 30 parliamentarians at the Palais Bourbon. La France Insoumise had succeeded in forming a parliamentary group, with 17 elected members, the National Rally had brought 8 elected members into the National Assembly. In five years, these figures have evolved over resignations, changes of groups and partial legislative. Here is in the graph above the composition of the National Assembly updated before the result of the 2022 legislative elections.