Since Sunday and Emmanuel Macron’s failure to obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly, France has often been described as “impossible to govern”. In Israel, on Monday June 20, the government announced the dissolution of the Knesset after only one year in power, prompting the fifth legislative elections in three years.
Unable to agree, the Israeli political parties find themselves paralyzed by full proportional representation and open the door to the return of Benyamin Netanyahu, all-powerful Prime Minister for twelve years. David Khalfa, associate researcher at the Observatory of North Africa and the Middle East of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, analyzes the consequences of the situation in a country that has become, truly, ungovernable.
L’Express: The Israeli government has just announced the dissolution of the Assembly. Was this unlikely coalition of eight political parties doomed?
David Khalfa: One can wonder if this government was only a parenthesis in the history of Israel. Naftali Bennett will remain the shortest term prime minister in history. Finally, the countdown seemed to be on since the very emergence of this coalition, unprecedented in the political history of Israel.
This odds and ends alliance was born of a political stalemate of four successive elections without net results, without a majority. Netanyahu’s desire to turn the page was the only cement of this coalition, made up of eight opposing parties on almost all important issues, particularly in terms of diplomacy and strategy on the Palestinian question.
But this dissolution of the Knesset remains a thunderclap. The government leaders did not wait to fall in the face of a motion of censure, therefore in the face of a victory for the opposition, and decided to dictate the tempo. They do not want to appear weak in the face of Netanyahu, who is preparing his weapons to return to the top of the state and has maintained his bloc of alliance between the ultra-Orthodox and the extreme right.
Elections will therefore take place in October. Is Benyamin Netanyahu the big favorite?
Netanyahu Prime Minister, it’s 50/50. On paper, the Israeli right has the advantage, because it has a bloc which is not in the majority but remains the most important. The balance of political power today is favorable to the right-wing bloc under the leadership of Netanyahu.
But since 2019, there have been four consecutive election cycles, and each time Netanyahu has proven unable to form a majority. A year ago, his defeat broke a taboo since he was perceived as unbeatable, his “fans” considering him irreplaceable. In foreign policy, he has bet a lot on frequenting the greats of this world, on the Abraham Accords, of which he claims paternity, and on defense issues, particularly with regard to Iran. Netanyahu has really tried to establish himself not only as an essential figure in Israeli political life, but also as the leader of the Israeli nation. And we have witnessed its spectacular fall.
After five elections in three years, the political deadlock is confirmed. What does this observation say about Israeli society?
This impasse is a reflection of Israeli divisions, of its ethno-religious and identity fractures. Israeli politics is a mosaic, in a very complex society, in the heart of a highly inflammable geopolitical region. National security issues structure public debate, which explains very strong divisions in both Jewish and Arab segments of society.
The electoral system accentuates these divisions. Very few countries in the world continue to use full proportional representation. For thirty years, Israeli leaders have been discussing a reform of this voting system because Israel has become ungovernable. But to change these rules, a majority is necessary and the small parties have no interest in approving this reform, which would be political suicide for them.
Since Sunday’s legislative elections, many commentators have described France as ungovernable. Is the situation comparable to Israel?
The ungovernable nature of France is really to be put into perspective in the light of what is happening in Israel. In France, we remain on electoral sequences which respect the institutional rhythm established by the quinquennium. In Israel, to my knowledge, no government has completed its mandate for thirty years!
Integral proportionality has the advantage of giving a faithful image of national representation, of Israeli sociological diversity. But it produces political crises systemically. Israel is much more ungovernable than France. Those who, in France, promote a proportional system should think twice before embarking on this institutional project. The Israeli example shows the danger of this type of reform.
Is it possible to assess the damage caused by this political instability in Israel?
The first consequence is that Israel has operated without a budget for two years, despite the fact that it is a country with major security issues. This instability also creates a lack of visibility on the funding of National Education, on the ability to respond to the high cost of living… Demonstrations are resuming in Israel on this theme, which is explained by the context of the war in Ukraine led by Russia, but which also reflects a social issue that has not disappeared from the Israeli political landscape. This will probably be a major topic of the upcoming campaign.