The scene is becoming almost familiar at the end of summer: a Russian flag flying over the building of a newly conquered village in eastern Ukraine. Despite the attack launched on August 6 in the Russian region of Kursk by Kiev’s forces, the Russian army has accelerated its advance in recent weeks in the Ukrainian oblast of Donetsk, the epicentre of the fighting since the start of the war. The latest capture was the town of Karlivka on September 4, about thirty kilometres south-east of the town of Pokrovsk, the conquest of which has become one of Moscow’s priority objectives.
The Russian army is now only about ten kilometers from this strategic target, after entering the village of Novohrodivka at the end of August, during another offensive further north. “The city of Pokrovsk is crucial for the Ukrainians since it is a major logistical hub in the region, notes Ivan Klyszcz, researcher at the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) in Tallinn. Its road network and its railway line are essential for supplying the Ukrainian forces based in this sector.” A particularly important logistical stronghold at a time when Moscow is redoubling its efforts to advance in the area.
Threat to supplies on the front
After the fall of Avdiivka last February, the Russian army patiently gained ground, at the cost of heavy losses, managing to create an advance into enemy territory of about forty kilometers long and twenty wide in the direction of Pokrovsk. “The battle of Pokrovsk could prove to be quite decisive in this area of the front, points out General Nicolas Richoux, former commander of the 7th armored brigade. If the Russians seize this city, they will cut off part of the logistical flow that passes through it before being distributed to other sectors, and that would be catastrophic for the Ukrainians.”
The T-0504 highway linking the cities of Pokrovsk to Chassiv Yar, via Kostiantynivka, is one of the vital axes for the supply of weapons, personnel and ammunition to the Ukrainian defenders present in the sector. The capture of the city, and de facto, the cutting of this artery, would have serious consequences. This would make it “more difficult for the Ukrainian armed forces to quickly resupply and maneuver resources to several key strongholds between Chassiv Yar and Vouhledar,” noted a British intelligence note on September 1. Enough to weaken a Ukrainian defensive system already under severe strain.
“Alternative routes exist, but nothing replaces a highway in terms of transport fluidity,” notes General Richoux. “If the Ukrainian forces have no choice but to use secondary roads, dirt tracks or to move at night through the woods, this will necessarily reduce their ability to supply their troops.” Especially since the area, dotted with rivers and small ponds, is not well suited to off-roading. The arrival of rain and mud from the Rasputitsa [NDLR : période durant laquelle les terrains deviennent boueux à la suite de pluies ou du dégel] in the fall may complicate the equation even more. “Even if it is unlikely that a capture of Pokrovsk could lead to a general collapse, it could endanger the central part of the front in the Donetsk oblast,” summarizes General Richoux.
“The Kremlin’s number one priority”
In a speech delivered this Thursday, September 5 in Vladivostok, Vladimir Putin hammered home that despite the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, “the number one priority” for Moscow remained the conquest of Donbass – which the Kremlin has claimed to annex as early as 2022. If one of the objectives of the Ukrainian incursion into enemy territory was to push Russia to draw down its troops present on the Donbass front to come and protect its borders, the Russian general staff has so far, according to open source data, only withdrawn a tiny portion of the soldiers engaged around Pokrovsk. Conversely, Russian gains have accelerated in the region since the Ukrainian offensive, leading some observers to question the relevance of this calculation.
Anxious to prepare for an assault that seems imminent, the local authorities of Pokrovsk ordered the evacuation of families with children on August 19, then confirmed in early September the ongoing reinforcement of the five lines of defense built since 2022 around this city of 60,000 inhabitants before the war. “Cities always offer an advantage to the defender to try to stop enemy forces,” emphasizes Ivan Klyszcz of the ICDS. The capture of Pokrovsk therefore promises to be a difficult fight for the Russians, especially since the Ukrainians will likely try to hold on to it.” For kyiv, the stakes are immense.
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