Russian military groups claim to have struck Belgorod in Russia.
Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lidén believes they have support from the Ukrainian side – ahead of the upcoming counter-offensive.
– It is no coincidence that it is happening right now, he says.
“It is time to put an end to the Kremlin dictatorship. Be brave and don’t be afraid because we are coming home. Russia will be free”.
On Monday evening, the statement was made by the “Freedom of Russia” group on Telegram. At the same time, the “Russian Volunteer Corps” claims to have carried out military operations in Belgorod, the city on the border with Ukraine.
At this point, none of it has yet been verified – and opinions differ as to who the forces belong to.
Russia claims that it is about Ukrainian saboteurs, Ukraine that they have nothing to do with the operation.
Thousands of soldiers
Peter Lidén, lieutenant colonel and teacher of military science at the Norwegian Defense Academy, knows both groups from before.
– What can be seen on social media so far are a couple or three tanks, half a dozen armored personnel carriers and a thousand soldiers. It is apparently a self-proclaimed militia of Russian citizens, who say they want another Russia and are making an attempt at revolt, he says.
– There are reasons to believe that this group has received support from Ukraine, perhaps not the Ukrainian army but possibly the security or intelligence services. They therefore do not have to be Ukraine’s puppets, but they have acted coordinated by Ukraine, so it is no coincidence that this is happening right now, he continues.
The lieutenant colonel believes that the attacks on Belgorod could be part of the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive.
– It is the timing that is interesting. With a “spring” or “summer offensive” you cannot surprise so much with regard to time, but you can surprise concerning the method and location of your actions. It is interesting if this is part of it.
A dilemma for Russia
Attacks against Russian targets can change the outcome of the war in a big way, the expert says, when Russia can be forced to shift its focus from the front in Ukraine to battles on its own soil.
– The problem now for Russia is that these groups include too many and are too strong to be handled by just the border police or security services. You will have to use your armed forces against them, forces that are currently busy in Ukraine, says Peter Lidén.
The military expert also believes that because the groups are very media, they cannot be ignored.
– It thus becomes a dilemma, albeit not an unsolvable one, for Russia’s General Staff and perhaps even for the regime. So far, in Ukraine, Russia’s army has bombed problems like these, but you can’t do that when it comes to villages in Russia.
“Righteous Russians”
The Russian Freedom Legion’s goal is said to be to topple Putin – but the group’s latest action need not be a sign that discontent with the Russian president is growing, even if it is growing in some quarters.
– This is the first concrete expression of dissatisfaction from exiled Russians. There are many such and they have so far not taken a significant position against the war as such and even less against the regime in Moscow, says Peter Lidén and continues:
– I believe and believe that these are righteous Russians who want to help Russia to something better. Then, of course, there may be overlapping interests with Ukraine in that.
Will attacks on Russian targets increase?
– I think so. Whether it is then infiltrated exiled Russians, or Ukrainian units, who then carry them out can certainly vary – but I think so. All this serves to facilitate, and perhaps mark the beginning of, a new Ukrainian offensive.