The election to the EU Parliament is on June 9, and the election result there could change the political landscape in Sweden considerably. If one of the parties fails to get over the barrier of four percent, there is a high probability that the party leader will be forced out. The risk is greatest for the Liberals and the Center Party. Both are below the four percent limit – both have unknown top names. But the risk is also great for the Christian Democrats.
Big row in KD
The Christian Democrats’ big row and seemingly endless change of top names before the EU parliamentary elections gave the image of a party full of conflict. But KD managed to recruit the opinion leader Alice Teodorescu Måwe, who replaces Sara Skyttedal. Teodorescu Måwe’s biggest advantage is that she is a relatively well-known opinion leader and can possibly attract voters from her old party – the Moderates.
The Christian Democrats made a record election in 2019 and received 8.62 percent and two mandates. Everything points to the Christian Democrats losing one of their two mandates, but the opinion figures show that they risk leaving the EU parliament entirely. Support for party leader Ebba Busch would then fail considerably. The question is whether she could handle such a crisis.
Few know the Center Party’s top name Emma Wiesner. She is considered competent and is popular internally. The last EU election did well for the Center Party, which received 10.78 percent and two mandates. This time it is considerably more difficult and the probability is high that they will lose a mandate. If they lose both their mandates, which is not out of the question, party leader Muharrem Demirok’s days as party leader will likely be numbered.
Worst for the Liberals
The situation is worst for the Liberals. They usually describe themselves as Sweden’s most EU-friendly party. But they just passed the EU barrier and got 4.13 percent in the last election in 2019. In the latest TV4 voter opinion, they got 2.9 percent. They have to increase their voter support by a quarter to even get into the EU parliament.
Which drag strip and electoral locomotive have the Liberals appointed for this fateful election?
Sitting EU parliamentarian, but anonymous to the Swedish people, Karin Karlsbro. She must now shoulder the responsibility for not leading the party in a historic flop. If it doesn’t work out, not only will she lose her job – party leader Johan Pehrson will also be out of a job. If he goes, there could be a whole sea of storms within the Liberals, but also in the tidö cooperation. Pehrson is one of the Liberals’ strongest defenders of cooperation with the Sweden Democrats.
What can possibly save him is that there aren’t that many obvious alternatives – and time. The Liberals still have the opportunity to be in government for two years until the next general election. That makes it much more difficult for them to create a government crisis at the moment.