The unions do not forget that in social conflicts, victory depends at least as much on skilful management of the calendar as on the number of demonstrations, the size of the processions, or the rate of strikers. By calling for a new and tenth day of action on Tuesday March 28 against the pension reform, less than a week after the previous one, the union leaders are taking the risk of less mobilization in the street. But they have little choice: in less than a month, the law enacting the passage of the starting age from 62 to 64 could be promulgated. Aware of the trap closing but galvanized by the fever which does not fall, they decided to accelerate and throw their ultimate forces into battle. They only have a few days left to achieve victories, even symbolic ones. The cancellation of Charles III’s visit on Friday March 24 is one as it shows that the Elysée can no longer act as if nothing had happened. The little music played by the executive – and by Elisabeth Borne again on Sunday evening in an interview with AFP – around “our door is always open to the unions” is also one. But they need other gestures, concrete this time. And without delay.
The calendar battle is not new. Since the mention of the pension bill, the executive and the trade unions have been engaged in a fierce race. A race where the slightest error can be fatal to one or the other camp, where each date on the calendar can turn into an asset or a pitfall, where the evolution of public opinion’s support for mobilizations /to the reform is scrutinized with the greatest attention. From the beginning, the executive is determined to move quickly. Admittedly, he had to postpone the presentation of his reform to the Council of Ministers from 15 December to 23 January to give parliamentarians and social partners time to express their concerns and to finalize his text, but then he did not no longer left room for the slightest breath. In particular, by choosing a review via article 47.1 which limits the duration of the debates to 50 days for a social security financing bill (20 days in the Assembly, 15 in the Senate). Then by refusing any hand extended by the social partners.
A time taken aback by the parliamentary calendar, then by the winter holidays extending until the beginning of March, the trade unions regained their momentum after the use of 49.3 by Elisabeth Borne in order to pass her text without a vote. . Public opinion did not like it and gave them credit. Even if it means shaking up traditions that are well anchored in the social landscape. Indeed, the call to mobilize on Tuesday March 28 falls in the middle of the CGT congress which is held all week in Clermont-Ferrand. The practice would have liked its partners to wait until the end of the congress to mobilize again. And this, especially since, even if it is no longer the first French union in professional elections, the Montreuil plant remains the most capable of providing large battalions in the street.
“After the weekend, it will be better”. Really ?
The executive had, in part, bet on it. At the end of the week and after the success of the March 23 movement, government advisers said in the press that the processions of the day should be allowed to pass, but “after the weekend, things would be better”. Failed, after the weekend, things are not necessarily better. The trade unions are all the more encouraged to step up the pace as they do not know in what state the CGT will emerge from its congress where the succession of Philippe Martinez is at stake. Two candidates face off there: Marie Buisson, the official candidate of the outgoing secretary general, and Céline Verzeletti, supported by more offensive organisations. Everyone has in mind the failed succession of Bernard Thibault who, in 2012, had wanted to propel Nadine Prigent to the head of the CGT before being disavowed, plunging his organization into a crisis which lasted several years. What will happen if the CGT comes out of this congress week divided? Doesn’t it risk weakening the movement as a whole?
Last element in favor of an acceleration of the tempo: the approach of the spring school holidays which start, for the first zone (Bordeaux, Lyon, Grenoble…) from April 8, ie in two weeks. Then, will open almost a month where the French will have more the head with the holidays than with the mobilization. Already in February – March, the winter holidays had marked a drop in processions and it was necessary to wait until March 7 to see if the movement could start again. A second pause could be fatal to the expression of discontent. Even May 1, which could mark the high point of social mobilization, has the “fault” this year of falling in the middle of Parisians’ holidays and being on a Monday, offering everyone a more favorable long weekend. family get-togethers and barbecues, and the making of banners. In the minds of union leaders, this agenda increases the urgency of finding a political solution.
In a month at the latest, the Constitutional Council, seized by both the government and various groups of parliamentarians, will deliver its verdict. No one knows if the censorship will be partial, total or if the text will be validated as it is. If he censors even a part of the text, the unions can hope that the executive finally reaches out to them. And go further than the vague promise of negotiations on working conditions set out by Emmanuel Macron during his televised intervention on March 22. But for that, they have to keep discontent at a high level without sinking into a radicalism that would turn public opinion upside down.
The violence that punctuated the end of the demonstration on Thursday March 23 encourages everyone not to wait to find a way out. Friday morning, on RTL, Laurent Berger began to sketch a proposal to loosen the schedule. He suggested “pausing” the reform and giving himself six months to discuss retirement and employment. Immediately, from Brussels, Emmanuel Macron retorted that his door was open to talk about everything, but… not pensions, no doubt counting on time to win the battle, the reformist unions, CFDT in the lead, having always said that they would respect the enacted law. But the week ahead promises to be decisive. If, on Tuesday, the processions remain large, the executive could finally soften its position. Because by winning the calendar battle without winning that of public opinion, he takes the risk of increased violence, maximum unpopularity and future impotence.