(Tiper Stock Exchange) – There will be no pension reform or, in any case, it will be delayed, like so many other reforms planned by the centre-right government. The Economy Minister explained it yesterday Giancarlo Giorgetti at the meeting in Rimini, defining the next “complicated” maneuver and admitting that “it will not be possible to do everything”.
Among the things that cannot be done there will certainly be the pensionswhose reform is unlikely with current birth numbers. “The theme of the birth rate is a fundamental theme: it doesn’t exist no reform which holds in the medium-long term with the birth rate numbers we have in this country today”, underlined the MEF owner.
But what are the current numbers of births?
The 2023 Annual Report, published by Istat on 7 July, reveals that the effects of population aging are becoming more and more evident: in 2022 there was a substantial drop in births compared to 2019, about 27 thousand fewer births, due 80% to the decrease in women between 15 and 49 years of age and the remaining 20% to the drop in fertility . 2022 stands out for a new minimum birth record (393 thousand, for the first time since the unification of Italy below 400 thousand) and for the high number of deaths (713 thousand). Since 2008, the year of relative peak in the birth rate, births have fallen by a third.
In the first quarter of 2023 the births (-118 thousand units) continue to decrease: -1.1 percent on 2022, -10.7 percent on 2019. As regards deaths, there is a decisive reversal of the negative trend that had dramatically affected the previous three years: they are 232 thousand in the first four months of 2023, 21 thousand less than in 2022, 42 thousand less than in 2020 and almost 2 thousand units less than in 2019.
An elderly population. The population over sixty-five amounted to 14 million 177 thousand individuals as of January 1, 2023, constituting 24.1% of the total population. Among the people over eightyhowever, an increase is noted, which leads them to 4 million 530 thousand and to represent the 7.7% of the total population.
A situation that will not improve in the future. The aging of the population on the contrary, it is destined to increase in the coming years, with negative effects also on the sustainability of the pension system. The demographic scenarios predict a substantial increase in the so-called “old people”: in 2041 the population over 80 will exceed 6 million; that of the over-90s will even reach .4 million.