The confession is signed by a framework of Horizons, the formation of Edouard Philippe. “LR? I have no confidence in their calculations, I have given up trying to understand them.” The tone, a mixture of spite and fun, sums up an ambient feeling. Two days before a hypothetical vote on the pension reform, it is difficult to take the thermometer of the Les Républicains group in the National Assembly. Everyone measures different temperatures, according to their sensors and their interests.
The equation is simple: the government needs nearly 40 LR votes out of 61 to pass its text. Otherwise, recourse to Article 49.3 of the Constitution will be inevitable. A political explosion, which would weaken Elisabeth Borne. The right holds the future of the Prime Minister as much as the pension reform in its hands.
“There is a clear majority within the group to vote for this reform”, assured this Tuesday March 14 the boss of the LR deputies Olivier Marleix during a press point. According to the calculations of Eric Ciotti, between 32 and 35 deputies approve the text. About fifteen are opposed to it and ten remain to be convinced. These supporters of the reform are close to the boss of LR, Olivier Marleix, elected Macron-compatibles or simple parliamentarians concerned with preserving the intellectual coherence of the right. These elected officials do not leave with a gun. One of them, who is afraid of bringing a decisive voice to the government, does not rule out changing sides. “If the vote is close, it must be supported in the constituency behind.”
LR Voice Hunt
The refractory camp is just as heterogeneous: there is Aurélien Pradié and his relatives, elected officials from Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, or other deputies from rural constituencies, such as Pierre Cordier (Ardennes) or Fabrice Brun (Ardèche). A communication war has erupted between these elected officials and the group’s management. Olivier Marleix’s optimism responds with the confidence of the slingers. One of them enumerated last week a list of 23 deputies hostile to the text. Finally, there is a soft belly. Deputies who do not reveal their game and say they are waiting for the outcome Wednesday evening of the Joint Joint Commission (CMP). “I moved away from the favorable vote”, assures the deputy of Orne Jérôme Nury, in a formula steeped in ambiguity.
The government is dealing with this rebellious ally. He embarked on a vast hunt for LR voices. A deputy was joined this weekend by Bruno Le Maire and the entourage of the Minister for Relations with Parliament Franck Riester. Another was to discuss this Tuesday with the former Minister of Culture, who surveyed the deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes Michèle Tabarot on his group. An uncertain quest, at the mercy of the slightest twist. “Some may miss the train on voting day,” laments an LR senator.
The CMP to move voices
The management of the LR group is banking on the CMP meeting to convince a handful of recalcitrants. Seven deputies and senators will agree Wednesday on a common version of the text, submitted to the vote of the two chambers of Parliament. Its positive outcome is hardly in doubt, but the content of the compromise will be decisive.
Olivier Marleix will defend there the lowering to 43 years of the duration of contributions for all workers eligible for the long career scheme, a proposal rejected by LR senators. The LR group had made this request at the end of the examination of the text in the National Assembly, at the insistence of Aurélien Pradié and his relatives. Olivier Marleix thus hopes to grab some votes with this advance. The three LR senators – reserved on this measure – should not stand in the way. To be sure, an exchange was to bring together this Tuesday Eric Ciotti, the President of the Senate Gérard Larcher, that of the senators LR Bruno Retailleau and Olivier Marleix.
The composition of the joint committee.
© / The Express
“It’s all amazing”
“The worst would be to suffer a double penalty, smiles an LR pillar in the upper house. Accepting an expensive measure in which we believe little, and that does not move an LR voice. I tend to think so. Beyond this device, the management of LR wants to believe that the presentation of all the concessions torn from the government will move the undecided. An exceptional group meeting organized on Wednesday after the CMP will have to ensure this.
49.3 or not 49.3? Whatever the outcome of the film, the sequence will leave traces at LR. Its internal divisions have made the party’s political message unreadable. The split between a reformist leadership and deputies anxious to spare their popular electorate casts doubt on its spine. The heir of the UMP even paid the luxury of an internal crisis, with the ousting of his number 2 Aurélien Pradié. All for a reform at the heart of its ideological DNA. “All of this is unbelievable,” laments a senator. The former minister Jean-François Copé, notes, disappointed: “The descent into hell continues, a clarification will be necessary.”