Was it his trip to the United States that gave him ideas? For a bit, Emmanuel Macron would consider the pension reform as a simple appetizer – admittedly hearty. Wednesday, December 7, during dinner with ministers and leaders of the majority, he recalled that he had been elected six months ago. Time flies quickly… “He will want to announce that there are other reforms necessary to succeed in the economic modernization of France, I feel that he has tracks in mind”, advances one of the guests. In September, the president had concluded a first dinner devoted to pension reform – and which had decided to give time a little time – with this injunction: “Don’t come back to see me in December saying ”It’s hard , given the context, the international tensions, the energy crisis'”. On Wednesday, he recalled this remark. Because there is the context, the international tensions, the energy crisis and it will be hard…
As the debate on pensions gets to the heart of the matter, Emmanuel Macron clearly asks to distinguish between two sequences: that of social consultation, that of political discussion in Parliament. And he imposed his line: since entering the atmosphere with the postponement of the retirement age to 64 would not change much in the general atmosphere, it is useless to move for the moment. Elisabeth Borne will therefore unveil on December 15 a project providing for a postponement to 65 years of age. Unless the unions change by then. “The president does not want us to degrade the copy ourselves, presented during the presidential and legislative elections and which cost us votes, without being asked”, justifies one of his relatives. “We should explain why we are moving now when no one is asking us to move. If we move, someone has to pay, either the right-wing Senate which voted to leave at 64, or the social partners”, completes a leader of the majority.
The executive has understood that the unions, whatever they are, even the reformers of the CFDT, reject any negotiation, including on the 64-year-old. “There is still a window of opportunity between December 8, the date of the professional elections, and December 15, but we do not believe it too much”, notes a faithful of the Head of State. Emmanuel Macron nevertheless asks everyone, for example party leaders like Stéphane Séjourné at the head of Renaissance, to increase exchanges with Laurent Berger.
The role of Laurent Berger
Elisabeth Borne wants to continue to discuss until the last minute and multiplies bilateral talks. Wednesday evening, she insisted on what the consultations had already brought, in particular on long careers or arduousness. She refuses to overwhelm Laurent Berger, still hopes that the reforming unions will eventually recognize progress. The former Minister of Labor has not forgotten that the severe criticism he had issued of his unemployment insurance reform had hurt, even in the ranks of the majority deputies.
“An act of neutrality has political value for us,” said Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday evening. This applies first to the CFDT, it also applies to the right. The Elysée and Matignon believe that the parliamentary groups are not bound by their president, this applies in particular to LR, and that it is therefore necessary to discuss with the numbers 1, but also, a lot, with each one. Emmanuel Macron insisted on this point. The “polyphony”, as they say in Matignon, which reigns on the right can open breaches. It is no coincidence that, even before the official meetings next week, Elisabeth Borne is discussing with Bruno Retailleau, the president of the LR group in the Senate – the right, in the upper assembly, has already been voting for a progressive postponement for several years from retirement age to 64.
The preferred vehicle is an amending Social Security financing bill, which has an advantage other than that of being able to go through 49.3 as many times as necessary: its examination is less easily bogged down than a normal bill . Because it is also a question of facing the parliamentary obstruction that LFI already promises.
It will also be necessary to fight the battle of opinion. “The risk is that people believe that we have a solution to a problem that does not exist in their eyes”, underlines a leader of the majority. This is why François Bayrou warned during Wednesday’s dinner that the Planning Commission he heads would publish a note “indisputable and which cannot be disputed” underlining the need for reform to rebalance the system: he leaked the document the next day.
The danger can come from anywhere, from the electorate pampered by the National Rally as from the street, heated by the left. The atmosphere in the country shows great excitement, as demonstrated by the panic caused by possible power cuts in homes. A leader of the majority recognizes this, before the battle begins: “For the moment, we do not have a political majority.”