Tick tock, time is running out. According to article 47-1 of the Constitution, the government may reform pensions by ordinance if Parliament has not made a final decision within fifty days. That is to say March 26 at the latest, according to the calculations of specialists. Bernard Vivier, director of the Higher Institute of Labor, dissects the challenges of the remaining weeks and more particularly of the “nineteen days of fear”, which separate March 7, the date of the great mobilization of the inter-union, from March 26 March. At this stage, the expert believes that Emmanuel Macron is still able to have his project adopted. Interview.
L’Express: On four occasions in recent weeks, the unions have taken more than two million people to the streets, according to their figures. However, the process of adopting the pension reform is following its course. What could make the executive flinch?
Bernard Vivier: Time plays in favor of the government, since article 47-1 of the Constitution provides for a maximum time for discussion before Parliament. On March 26, mass will be said. After this date, it will certainly not be impossible to demonstrate against the pension reform project, but it will become much more complicated, especially for a moderate union like the CFDT. Because mobilizing against a project is not like mobilizing against a text already adopted, about to enter into force.
We can think that everything will be decided between now and March 26, and even more precisely between March 7, the date of “France at a standstill”, to use the expression used by Laurent Berger, the secretary general of the CFDT, and March 26, the choice having been made not to schedule strikes or rallies during school holidays.
Precisely, between March 7 and March 26, what can happen that could hinder the government’s determination?
We already know that demonstrations are not enough. Between September and October 2010, at the time of the pension reform under Nicolas Sarkozy, there were four demonstrations which brought together more than 2.5 million people, according to union figures. And yet, the law was passed. So something more would be needed, something unforeseen that would set the country ablaze. This can go through an extension of the struggles. The revolt would have to go beyond the framework of trade unionism, that it would affect the yellow vests, the angry doctors, the nurses, the truck drivers, even the students who are surprisingly calm today.
In this case, what would cause the government to back down? Emmanuel Macron is playing his political credibility on this project.
Yes, Emmanuel Macron wants to leave a different memory than those of Jacques Chirac or François Hollande, who did not dare to make this type of reform. He considers that his political identity is at stake. This is also why the French continue to think, even though they are against the project, that the pension reform will be done. This is an important indicator, which goes in the direction of the adoption of the project: the French have got used to the idea that it will pass.
Can we imagine that the government extinguishes the mobilization by watering down its project a little more?
Yes, at the margin, we can think of measures in favor of women, for example. But the point of 64 years is irreversible. It is about the very meaning of Emmanuel Macron’s reform.
Can we imagine the CFDT calling for a renewable strike from March 8?
Laurent Berger will perhaps encourage those who can to stop work for a few days, but I don’t see him calling for a general strike, which will not take place, barring a huge surprise. He will have to invent other modes of action, but what? It is different with the CGT of course, but will the base follow? The power stations no longer have the power of orientation that they used to have. Social networks are now more influential.
Are refinery blockages possible?
Obviously. Besides, I think that Philippe Martinez will find it difficult to disavow the harshest actions from March 8. The CGT congress takes place from March 27, it would be frowned upon in this context to appear cautious in relation to the struggles. But, concerning the refineries, you will note that there are nineteen days between March 7 and March 26 and that the strategic stocks of the State make it possible to overcome possible blockages for approximately three weeks. This would be enough, or almost, to make the connection.
Ultimately, do you think that Emmanuel Macron is now in a position to have his pension reform adopted?
At this point, yes, I think so. But you have to be very careful, the situation is changing quickly, and sometimes even Mrs. Irma is wrong.