Pedro Sánchez has walled himself in a silence which leaves room for all speculation. The Spanish Prime Minister must come out this Monday, April 29 to announce whether or not he is resigning from the government, after having given himself five days to reflect on the subject. At issue: the investigation opened by a Madrid court for “influence peddling and corruption” targeting his wife, Begoña Gómez. “They are filing a complaint against Begoña, not because she did something illegal, because they know that is not true, but because she is my wife,” Pedro Sánchez said on Wednesday, April 24. .
The preliminary investigation by Spanish justice was opened following a complaint filed by Manos Limpias (“Clean Hands”), an organization considered close to the far right. According to the media The Confidential, at the origin of the information, the investigation concerns the links of Begoña Gómez with the tourism group Globalia, owner of the airline Air Europa. During the health crisis, Begoña Gómez, then director of IE Africa Center, a foundation linked to the Madrid business school IE University, allegedly participated in a private meeting with the CEO of Globalia, at the time when the company was negotiating a multi-million euro rescue plan with the government of Pedro Sánchez. While Manos Limpias admitted to having relied solely on press articles to file her complaint, the Spanish public prosecutor’s office requested on Thursday the cancellation of the procedure and the dismissal of the judicial investigation.
The socialist Prime Minister, in office since 2018, was reappointed with difficulty last year: to obtain a majority in Parliament, the PSOE notably had to ally with the Catalan separatists, in exchange for the promise of adoption of an amnesty law (finally rejected in January by Parliament) for hundreds of separatists pursued by the courts. An agreement that weakened Pedro Sánchez, believes political scientist María Elisa Alonso. The teacher-researcher at the University of Lorraine judges that Spain is going through an unprecedented political crisis, marked by the questioning of the legitimacy of democratic institutions by the right-wing opposition, like the attitude of supporters of Donald Trump. Interview.
L’Express: How is Spanish society experiencing this situation?
Maria Elisa Alonso : In a context where the political class and Spanish society in particular has been very polarized for several months, the affair has sparked strong criticism from the opposition, and generated great confusion among the Socialist Party (PSOE) and its activists, because very little is known about the intentions of Pedro Sánchez. Even the ministers and executives of the PSOE say that they have no idea what is going to happen and that they cannot reach the Prime Minister.
Why did Pedro Sánchez announce this period of reflection, in your opinion? Why not resign directly?
I believe that he left himself these five days to sound the alarm, to alert Spanish society to what is happening in the country. To denounce the fact that a court admitted a complaint based on such light elements. Pedro Sánchez probably wanted to warn that the opposition is not criticizing his government, but attacking his family without legal basis. There is undoubtedly a desire on his part to emphasize the extreme polarization experienced by Spanish society and the political class.
Is it possible that, as the right-wing opposition says, he used these five days strategically, with the aim of generating a movement of support among his supporters, like the demonstration we saw in Madrid this Saturday ?
We must not forget that in a week there are elections in Catalonia, and in June, the European elections. In this context, the bases of the PSOE are already strongly mobilized. But anything is possible, especially coming from Pedro Sánchez, who bases his leadership on twists and turns like this. He is a fine strategist, who masters the tricks of political life and institutions to perfection. He could anticipate what was going to happen.
Does this scandal weaken the government?
I do not believe. Spain is the country with the highest growth rate in the European Union at the moment [NDLR : 2,5 % en 2023]. Economically, Spain is not doing badly, and this works in its favor. Politically, the government also has a list of allies who, despite the criticism they can sometimes direct to it, support it on certain measures, for example on social housing aid or on the increase in the minimum wage. I believe that the approach of the two elections pushes the opposition to seek to delegitimize the government by all means.
Pedro Sánchez’s re-election last year was very close…
It’s true, but Spain is very polarized. Society is completely divided between conservatives and progressives. Between the People’s Party (PP) and its allies on one side [NDLR : le parti d’extrême droite Vox], and the PSOE and its allies, on the other. And this is reflected in the elections. It is therefore very difficult to obtain a majority, for one camp or the other.
Does Pedro Sánchez remain popular with his electoral base?
The announcement of the amnesty law for separatists earned him a lot of criticism, coming both from his electoral base and from PSOE activists. This weakened the socialist electoral base. The complaint against Begoña Gómez could allow Pedro Sánchez to remobilize his base and his supporters before the two upcoming elections. The PSOE, but also journalists and intellectuals [NDLR : dont le cinéaste Pedro Almodóvar] have shown their support for the Prime Minister in recent days.
Can the right and the far right take advantage of this crisis?
For the moment, the right-wing parties are not benefiting in any way, but this could change depending on Pedro Sánchez’s decision. If he resigns and new elections are organized, the polls effectively show the PP and Vox as winners. And even if Pedro Sánchez does not leave his post, we can at least say that the right-wing parties will have found the Prime Minister’s Achilles heel.
What happens in Spain when a head of government resigns?
Pedro Sánchez, just like the PP, can propose a new candidate. If none obtains a majority in Parliament, there will be new elections. But Spanish society is so polarized that in such a hypothesis, we would have a very close result: any head of government would have a very slim majority.
Can we talk about a political crisis?
Yes, this is an unprecedented political crisis because it is the first time that we have questioned the legitimacy of institutions, and it is the first time in Spain that we have seen such a frontal attack against the head of government. . The opposition, which constantly speaks of an “illegitimate government”, had already questioned the election results last year and spoke of “electoral fraud”. It is a speech similar to that of Donald Trump’s supporters in the United States.
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