(Finance) – The preliminary annual revisions of the benchmark Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey showed that the US economy recorded 818k fewer nonfarm jobs than previously reported in the 12 months ended March 2024. Bond investors have been quick to conclude that the U.S. labor market is clearly turning around, but economists at Payden & Rygel think the question is “less obvious“.
“First, while the revision indicates that job growth ahead of March 2024 was weaker than the previously reported pace of 242k per month, the Monthly earnings of 174k still indicate a healthy job market – reads a note from the Economic Team – Second, annual revisions to the CES survey have gone in both directions, and preliminary revisions often differ from the final revision, as has been the case for the past three years. Finally, 818k represents less than 0.5% of total nonfarm employment, a relatively small change in the overall picture of consumer earning power”.
“In conclusion – it is underlined – the revisions still show an economy that is adding jobs at a decent pace and They tell us very little, if anything, about the labor market since March“.
(Photo: Saulo Mohana on Unsplash)