Published: Just now
Turkey’s ambassador believes that Swedish authorities should act against the organizers of Sunday’s anti-NATO demonstration – before Sweden can be admitted to NATO.
Turkey connoisseur Paul Levin still sees a glimmer of light in the latest developments.
– The tone is more positive than what was heard before, he says.
The new law on terrorist offences, which entered into force on 1 June, “would be an important step towards fulfilling the trilateral memorandum for Swedish membership” in NATO.
That’s what Yönet Can Tezel, Turkey’s ambassador to Sweden, writes on Aftonbladet Debatt today.
But, he emphasizes, only if the changes are “implemented effectively”.
Turkey doesn’t just want a new law – it also wants to see it deliver results.
It is in line with what Turkey has expressed all along, according to Paul Levin, director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at Stockholm University.
The Turkish perspective is that the new law should not allow demonstrations with PKK flags – but Paul Levin notes at the same time that it is not presented by the ambassador as an absolute condition for Swedish NATO membership.
– The ambassador is a skilled career diplomat, and knows how to express himself, so you can partly deduce the tone of it. But yes, I think the tone is more positive than what was heard before.
He compares to how Turkey’s then foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu in December said that Sweden “wasn’t even halfway” to meeting Turkey’s demands.
– Even after the Koran burning, there was a much harsher tone. I note a slightly more positive tone, says Paul Levin.
“Other factors”
Why Turkey actually blocks Sweden’s NATO membership is not entirely clear.
The potential reasons are many.
It could be to get fighter jets off the US, to get NATO to take a tougher stance against terrorism or to reduce the outside world’s support for the Kurdish YPG in Syria.
But there is one thing Turkey has consistently pushed for: Sweden must show concrete results in the fight against what Turkey considers terrorists.
– Just because there are other factors as well, one should probably not underestimate that it is actually as Turkey says. Then whether it is about deportations, legal proceedings, stopping demonstrations or initiating legal proceedings against those who wave PKK flags, it is a little more difficult to know, says Paul Levin.
– My personal assessment is that one should not underestimate how widespread and deep the anger against the PKK is in Turkey. Ordinary people in Turkey have very little understanding that in Sweden you can carry hundreds of PKK flags in a demonstration.
A third scenario
“When Turkish and Swedish authorities meet next week to discuss progress with the trilateral memorandum for Swedish membership in NATO, we will hopefully have a clearer idea of how much the new law makes a difference,” writes the ambassador in his debate article.
Paul Levin describes the meeting next week as “make it or break it” – where it is likely to be decided whether Sweden will become a member of NATO in time for the summit in Vilnius on July 11-12.
– If positive results do not come out very quickly after that meeting, then I suspect that it will be too late to catch up before Vilnius, he says.
Paul Levin envisions three main scenarios.
Either Turkey’s parliament ratifies Sweden’s application before the Vilnius meeting, or Erdogan promises during the meeting that it will happen.
However, a third scenario cannot be ruled out: That Turkey continues to hold back on Sweden’s ratification.
– The signals are still more positive now than before, he says.