If the United States decides to send Patriot anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine, the significance is both military and political, says Docent of Military Sciences and Visiting Researcher at the Alexander Institute Ilmari Käihkö.
Patriot is the most advanced US air defense system. Ukraine has repeatedly requested Patriot systems to better counter Russian attacks on civilian targets.
Western countries have so far been reluctant to give Patriot systems to Ukraine. Now an American news channel CNN (you will switch to another service) and The New York Times magazine (you will switch to another service) say, based on their sources, that the United States may soon announce that Ukraine will also receive Patriots.
See in this story how the decision would affect the course of the war and what kind of message it is from the United States.
1. Missiles cannot be used in a blink of an eye
According to Ilmari Käihkö, Patriot missiles have military significance, but at the same time there are several buts.
Ukrainians have not been trained in the use and maintenance of Patriot systems. Training and thus getting the systems into effective use can take weeks or even months.
– We don’t know how quickly the United States would get these systems to Ukraine, and we also don’t know how many missiles the United States can give Ukraine immediately or in the long term, or how quickly it can get Ukrainians trained, Käihkö states.
The United States would probably train Ukrainians abroad, possibly in Germany, so that Americans do not have to go to Ukraine.
– It would be a really significant political statement if there were Americans in Ukraine using military force against the Russians. I don’t think there is any political will for it.
2. Russian attacks do not end with air defense alone
According to Käihkö, the Patriot missiles would facilitate the fight against Russian airstrikes, but would not solve the problem.
First of all, the range of Patriot missiles is not very long, depending on the type, 60–100 kilometers.
Second, missiles are relatively expensive, and the United States does not have an unlimited number of them. One Patriot missile is estimated to cost 1–6 million euros and one system more than 1 billion euros.
– It has been estimated that three Patriot systems would be needed to defend Kyiv alone, says Käihkö.
It is not known how many missiles the United States would be able to give Ukraine and for how long. In addition, the resources swallowed by the Patriot missiles are taken away from something else.
With air defense, Ukraine is also unable to completely stop Russian airstrikes.
Although Ukraine has managed to repel airstrikes with a high success rate, according to Käihkö, it is not realistic to assume that Ukraine would receive so much air defense that it would repel all of them.
As an example, Käihkö mentions the recent attacks on Odessa. Ukraine said it had shot down 10 of Russia’s 15 drones. However, five drones caused so much destruction that 1.5 million people were left without electricity for a day.
According to Käihkö, Russia probably wants to continue attacks on civilian targets as long as the war continues. For Russia, drones are quite inexpensive, while air defense will be expensive for Ukraine, as will repairing the damage caused by the attacks.
– If and when the war prolongs, in the long term the economy will play a significant role in terms of the outcome of the war: will Ukraine be able to continue the war if the critical infrastructure is destroyed at this rate.
3. Giving Patriots has been difficult for the West
Ukraine has long wanted Patriot missiles, but Western countries have so far been reluctant to provide them.
– There has been no desire to export certain systems, long-range weapons, fighter jets and modern tanks. Tanks are perhaps the next thing that will become relevant if Ukraine’s own equipment runs out, says Käihkö.
Western countries have wanted to limit the war to between Ukraine and Russia. If the Patriot systems had been wanted to be exported quickly, some country’s soldiers would have had to be sent to use them.
For example, Poland recently proposed to Germany that Germany would take the Patriot system it had promised Poland to Ukraine. Germany refused and one of the reasons was that the Ukrainians have not been trained to use the system. Thus, German soldiers should have been sent to Ukraine to operate the system.
– The fear must have been that [saksalaisten operoima] the weapon system shoots down Russian missiles or, in the worst case for Germany, Russian aircraft, says Käihkö.
4. “An important political message from the United States to Russia”
Käihkö considers the political message that the US announcement about giving Ukraine Patriot missiles would send important.
– It can be interpreted as a political message from the United States to Russia that there is now a willingness to do even more to support Ukraine.
The message for Ukraine would be that the country will be supported as long as it needs support.
According to Käihkö, giving the missiles would also be a wink for Europe.
– The United States is once again doing something that European countries have not been ready to do, says Käihkö.
Käihkö considers the figures about who has given Ukraine what kind of support to be harsh. The United States has completely dominated the statistics compared to European countries.
– In the United States, there is reason to ask, and it has been asked, why Europe does not do more, Käihkö says.