PARTICIPATION. Participation in the second round of the presidential election is a key factor. Linternaute.com provides you with its rate as the 2022 election progresses, as well as a comparison of participation in the last elections.
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[Mis à jour le 24 avril 2022 à 22h03] According to an Elabe estimate for BFMTV at 9:15 p.m., participation in the 2nd round of the 2022 presidential election is estimated at 71.8%, with blank and invalid ballots estimated at 6.2%. The drop in the participation rate in the 2nd round compared to that of 2017, during the previous presidential election, therefore stands at around -3 points. An abstention which could (in part) be explained by the school holidays, and, potentially, the lower attendance at the polling stations.
The Easter school holidays for zone C (academies of Paris, Versailles, Créteil, Toulouse and Montpellier) started on the evening of Friday 22 April, in the wake of the spring holidays for zone A (academies of Besançon, Clermont -Ferrand, Limoges, Lyon, Bordeaux, Dijon, Poitiers and Grenoble), since Friday evening April 15, and those of zone B (academies of Aix-Marseille, Amiens, Caen, Lille, Nancy -Metz, Nantes, Orléans-Tours, Reims, Rennes and Strasbourg).
What were the participation rates at 8 p.m. during the last presidential elections?
- 2002: 79.7% at 8 p.m.
- 2007: 84% at 8 p.m.
- 2012: 80.4% at 8 p.m.
- 2017: 74.6% at 8 p.m.
- 2022: 71.8% at 8 p.m.
What was the turnout at 5 p.m. on April 24?
The turnout for the second round of the 2022 presidential election was estimated at 63.23% at 5 p.m., down almost two points from the turnout at 5 p.m. during the first round of the 2022 presidential election: April 10, 65% voters had indeed made the trip at 5 p.m. This score for participation in the 2nd round of the presidential election at 5 p.m. is, finally, down two points compared to the second round of the 2017 presidential election (65.3%), with already the duel Emmanuel Macron / Marine Le Pen. According to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate for France Télévisions, abstention in the second round is estimated at 27.8%, which would correspond to a 72.2% participation rate.
What were the participation rates at 5 p.m. during the last presidential elections?
- 2002: 67.6% at 5 p.m.
- 2007: 75.1% at 5 p.m.
- 2012: 72% at 5 p.m.
- 2017: 65.3% at 5 p.m.
- 2022: 63.2% at 5 p.m.
The participation rate at 5 p.m. on April 24: worse than in the 1st round of 2022 and than in the 2nd round of 2017
At 5 p.m., during the first round two weeks ago, the turnout was 65% in France, a figure that is down sharply from the last elections (69.4%). Another figure to keep in mind: the participation rate in the second round of the presidential election at 5 p.m., 5 years ago, in 2017, during the previous duel between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. This amounted to 65.3%.
Why is the turnout for the 2nd round of the 2022 presidential election a key piece of data?
Political observers have considered for several days that tonight’s turnout is, whatever happens, a structuring factor in the election. In fact, it says a lot about the way in which the French consider the democratic exercise of the vote, at a time when taking part in the vote is no longer necessarily a necessity, nor even a pillar, of political life in the eyes of many citizens. Note that the services of the place Beauvau, which are in charge of the organization and the proper conduct of the ballot, give updated rates of participation and abstention at 5 p.m. and then at 8 p.m. Later in the night, the turnout is consolidated with final figures, once all the data from the polling stations has been counted.
Did the polls correctly predict turnout for the first round?
Since a high abstention rate was feared for the first round, a lower turnout than for previous elections was expected. Were the polls accurate before April 10? A number of media have polling institutes that update their daily barometer, like Les Echos, whose OpinionWay-Kéa Partners barometer was often cited as a benchmark during the campaign. At the beginning of April, they had published polls relating to the participation rate in the first round of the election, warning that the risk of a very strong abstention worried the experts.
In an article published on April 4, Les Echos revealed that only 66% of French people intended to go to the polls on Sunday April 10. This figure being very low, the president of OpinionWay, Bruno Jeanbart, nuanced: “It can still change a lot between now and Sunday. More and more, voters are deciding to vote at the last moment”, ensuring that the record of 2002, with only 71.6% of the voters having turned out, should not be beaten, but that the participation “would not reach the 77.7% of 2017”. In the same way Frédéric Micheau, deputy director at Opinion Way, went in this direction: “What we see is a participation rate of around 70%” (remarks made on the set of Franceinfo on April 8 latest). However, he insisted on recalling that “participation is surely the hardest thing for polling institutes to measure”. The Harris-Interactive poll of February 23 (very popular) also predicted that 68% of French people questioned would vote in the first round. In general, the polls thus gave a participation rate ranging from 66 to 72% for the first round of April 10. It was finally 73.69%.