What will be the turnout in the first round of the legislative elections this Sunday, June 30? We take stock of the figures given at 5 p.m. by the Ministry of the Interior.
Will the French mobilize for the legislative elections? It is this Sunday, June 30, 2024 that voters are invited to cast their votes at the polls for the first round of this ballot which will determine which deputies will sit in the National Assembly. Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. this morning. At 5 p.m., 59.39 % voters cast a ballot, a figure still up sharply by 20 pointscompared to the last legislative election in 2022. We have to go back to 1978, when 68% of voters had voted at this time, to have a better turnout in the legislative elections (not counting the 1986 election, a vote which took place using proportional representation in one round).
This confirms the trend announced at midday, where 25.90% of voters had already gone to the polls by midday. In 2022, for the first round of legislative elections, 18.43% voted at noon, and 39.42% at 5 p.m. In the end, at 8 p.m., the final turnout was 52.49%. The mobilization is already much stronger for this early election in 2024, ordered after the dissolution of the National Assembly by Emmanuel Macron following the results of the European elections on June 9.
Some departments are already standing out as the good students of this legislative election. In Finistère, the participation rate reached 68.26%. At 5 p.m., 67.31% had voted in Tarn. The same in Dordogne, where the rate rose to 66.82%.
If we compare the turnout rate at 5pm in the European elections on 9 June, the trend is also upward. 45.26% of voters voted in the European elections at this time, a figure that is very slightly up compared to 2019 at the same time (45.26%). Once again, the turnout rate is already higher than three weeks ago at 8pm, since 51.49% of voters voted in the European elections in France.
In light of these results, initial estimates of turnout at 8 p.m. are starting to emerge. According to Elabe’s predictions for BFM TV, RMC and La Tribune on Sunday, turnout could reach 69.5% when polling stations close. Ipsos, for its part, is predicting a turnout of 67.5%. The polling institute is thus predicting an increase of 22 points compared to the 2022 legislative elections. The turnout rate will further increase with the last voters expected at the polling stations. The latter close at 6, 7 or 8 p.m. depending on the size of the municipalities and the times set by the municipalities and prefectures.