Rarely a diplomatic meeting has not been so uncertain. Saturday, May 10, after refusing the thirty-day ceasefire demanded by Europeans, Vladimir Putin offers direct discussions between Russians and Ukrainians in Istanbul. Volodymyr Zelensky’s counter-offer in the process: the latter urges the Russian president to go in person to Türkiye. Radio silence by Vladimir Putin since … on the eve of the negotiations, the master of the Kremlin always leaves doubt about his presence.
On the side of political leaders, opinions are shared. While Brazilian President Lula Da Silva is committed to encouraging the “comrade Putin” to participate in this meeting, the head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas thinks that the Russian president “will not dare to go to Istanbul.
To date, the Russian and Ukrainian presidents only met once, in 2019, during a meeting in Paris in the presence of Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel. They had then acted to meet again four months later. Obviously missed appointment …
What can we really expect from discussions in Türkiye? L’Express takes stock.
kyiv says he is ready, Moscow makes the suspense last
On the Ukrainian side, Volodymyr Zelensky was very clear. “If Putin does not come to Türkiye, it will look like a total defeat for him,” he told Release. “If Putin is not in Türkiye, it will be a very clear signal for the whole world that he does not want to stop the war that he started,” said his chief of staff Andriy Yermak at the World.
On the Russian side, the Kremlin still refuses to communicate the composition of the delegation which will go to Türkiye. “We will do this when we received the president’s instructions,” said Kremlin Peskov’s Kremlin spokesperson on Wednesday morning.
“Putin would like me to be there, and that’s a possibility. I don’t know if he will be there if I am not there. We will see,” said Donald Trump on Wednesday, on the plane to Qatar. Botting in touch on his own presence on Thursday, the American president, however, said from Riyadh: “Marco will be there”.
Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his wish that the American president is present at the negotiations, while the position of the American president seems to evolve in favor of Ukraine, marking a turning point since the meeting tense between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump at the White House last March.
In addition to the head of American diplomacy, the representatives Steve Witkoff – the United States specials special in the Middle East – and Keith Kellogg – UKRAINE for Ukraine – will also go to Istanbul. “President Trump has always been clear. Fighting must stop – now,” Kellogg tweeted on Tuesday.
Nuclear deterrence
Regarding the subjects which will be discussed this Thursday, the Vice Minister of Russian Foreign Affairs, Sergei Riabkov, said he wanted absolutely discussing “primary sources” of the war on Thursday, starting with Ukraine’s unplaway at NATO. Russian spokesperson Dmitri Peskov reacted to the announcement of Emmanuel Macron concerning a possible widening of nuclear deterrence to Europe. “The deployment of nuclear weapons on the European continent is not what will bring security, predictability and stability to the European continent,” he said.
For their part, the Americans have drawn up a list of subjects to mention Thursday, unveiled by Keith Kellogg on the Fox Business TV channel earlier this week. Among other things, there are the final judgment of the war, the return of Ukrainian children deported to Russia, the deployment of European troops to ensure peacekeeping, or the thorny question of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which Keith Kellogg considered that it “might not happen in the near future”.
Europe brandishes the threat of new sanctions
Europeans have also emphasized a possible strengthening of sanctions against Russia if no agreement is found in Türkiye. The twenty-seven work at a seventeenth pack of sanctions against Moscow, scheduled for adoption on May 20.
Paris thus ensures preparing – hand in hand with Washington – “devastating” sanctions, which would allow “to take Russia by throat” and to “suffocate once and for all the Russian economy”. The energy and finance sectors would in particular be targeted. Interviewed Tuesday evening on TF1, the French president also specified that it could be “secondary sanctions”, targeting “those who resell”. On the other hand, he dismissed the idea of targeting the Russian assets frozen since the start of the war, believing that there was no “legal framework to do so”.
Berlin has made a similar speech, declaring that Russia would be targeted by a new penalty train, in the absence of “real progress this week”, and called on Russia to make “a decisive step” for peace in Ukraine. “Time is turning,” said German government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius.
What place for Turkey?
Turkey, chosen by Vladimir Putin for these negotiations, will be at the forefront of discussions.
Ankara has had cordial relations with kyiv and Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. And maintains an ambivalent position … while supporting the territorial integrity of Ukraine and providing him with military aid, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to oppose sanctions against Russia.
It remains to be seen whether these negotiations will constitute a “historic turning point”, as anticipated by the Turkish president, or will resolve, like those of 2022, by a failure.