(Finance) – “International trade is increasingly used as a strategic leverespecially in technological competition “. The Governor of the Bank of Italy said so, Fabio Panettaintervening at the 31st congress of financial market operators, organized in Turin by Assiom Forex.
“In this context, the strategy of the new US administration is inserted, which provides for new and higher duties on imports – he added – particular attention is paid to partner with a large commercial surplus towards the United States. The China surplus towards the American economy amounted to around 300 billion dollars in 2024, about a third of the Chinese overall commercial surplus and a quarter of the United States deficit “.
“According to our estimates, if the duties announced in the pre-electoral phase were implemented and accompanied by retaliation measures, the Global GDP growth would be reduced by 1.5 percentage points – said the governor – For the US economy the impact would overcome the 2 points. For the euro area, the consequences would be more contained, around half a percentage point, with greater effects for Germany and Italy, given the relevance of their “.
“The historical experience shows that the commercial wars damage growth, even in the countries that start them – he explained – The duties do not guarantee a reduction in the deficit of current games. If they do, they would also entail a lower net influx of capital to the country that imposed them, with consequent adjustments through an increase in the saving of residents or a reduction in investments “.
According to Panetta, “it is possible that the US administration is using ads on duties such as negotiating leverage to redefine economic and political relations with other areas of the world. However, in a context already marked by geopolitical, commercial and war tensions, this strategy could escape control, generating effects well beyond those desired, aggravating existing disagreements and opening new fractures. Negotiating solutions based on cooperation not only represent a preferable alternative, but are necessary to avoid a spiral of conflicts that would threaten global stability “.