The success of Ukraine’s offensive depends on several things. According to Lieutenant Colonel Joakim Paasikivi, Ukraine needs to surprise Russia.
– It is difficult, everyone knows that the spring offensive is coming. It’s just a matter of keeping the Russians in the dark about where it’s coming from, he says.
He believes that Ukraine needs to break through and cut off the defense line in a place where the Russians are weak.
– Then you can create chaos and an awareness in Moscow that this cannot continue.
Unusually wet spring
For a successful attack, however, the ground must have time to dry up after the unusually wet spring.
– Even if the tank gets through the mud, it is very difficult for ammunition and fuel trucks to get through now. The roads would be destroyed. You have to wait for favorable conditions.
Joakim Paasikivi therefore believes that it may take until the second half of May before the offensive begins.
– Possibly it could be earlier, perhaps it could already be on May 9 when Russia celebrates the victory over Hitler’s Germany, just as a mark.
In the clip, he explains where and how Ukraine can succeed in taking the Russian troops by surprise.