Soon it will be a year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The continued Western support is a prerequisite for Ukraine to achieve success, says Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel of the Norwegian Defense Academy, in Efter fem.
He believes that one can expect Ukraine to begin an offensive in March or April. And he believes the war could come to an end this year if things go well for Ukraine.
– If you don’t succeed, we can fear a long war. But I am cautiously optimistic.
Ukrainian air defense has improved
According to Paasikivi, the Ukrainian air defense has improved and Russia would have many aircraft shot down in an offensive.
– You can reach a point of pain where the Russians are actually forced to the negotiating table. I don’t think the Ukrainians will beat every single Russian unit on Ukrainian soil, but maybe a withdrawal can be negotiated.
In the player above, Joakim Paasikivi gives an analysis of how the war may continue in the spring.