Published: Less than 10 min ago
Ukraine says it has killed 400 Russian soldiers holed up in a school building in Russian-controlled Donetsk. Russia, in turn, claims that it is about 60 soldiers.
If 400 Russian soldiers really were in the same place, lieutenant colonel Joakim Paasikivi calls the whole thing “extremely stupid” – but not impossible.
Paasikvi, who is also a teacher of military strategy at the Norwegian Defense Academy, emphasizes that we still know very little about the Ukrainian attack that occurred on New Year’s Eve.
According to Paasikivi, the Russian death toll of roughly 60 soldiers should be about bodies that have been found.
TT: But is it reasonable to place 400 soldiers in the same building?
– If they have done it, it is extremely militarily clumsy. But that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. They have done this before, says Paasiviki.
Unofficial Russian comments have suggested that the school building was also used as a weapons depot. According to Paasikivi, the fallen soldiers may have been part of a battalion, as the unofficial information also indicates that the soldiers would be deployed during the day.
Bigger losses
– The before and after pictures that have arrived show that the building is basically completely obliterated. It is flat, Paasikivi says of the school building and continues:
– When you see how the building has collapsed, there is, at least for me, reason to believe that the losses are significantly greater because there may be more bodies under the rubble. We don’t know if the Ukrainian figures are correct, but they are by no means unreasonable.
One of Russia’s big problems, according to Paasikivi, is that many officers have fallen – the lack of experience is therefore palpable.
– Then you may not have reflected on the fact that you are within firing range of the Himars artillery system, which Ukraine has probably used.
Himars is an artillery system that the US has been supplying to Ukraine.
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Russia also does not have many alternative accommodation options. For example, Paasikivi believes that Russia does not have enough tents.
– This type of building, schools and the like, is very suitable for a facility. It could be attractive to the Russians, he says, and adds that it will be interesting to see if there will be any consequences for the people who made the decision to place the soldiers in the building.
Paasikivi emphasizes that Ukraine must have a well-designed intelligence system to be able to carry out operations like this.
– They must have up-to-the-minute, or at least up-to-the-minute, information that this high-value target existed.
Anniversary is approaching
As of February, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has been going on for a year. Paasikivi says that right now it looks like neither Ukraine nor Russia can go on the offensive. Ukraine is pushing in Luhansk and Russia in the city of Bachmut in Donetsk.
– Right now it’s just a meat grinder at the front.
One reason why it is difficult to go on the offensive is that the winter has been warm – which means that there is no frost in the ground, which in turn makes it difficult to advance, according to Paasikivi.
– The Ukrainians benefit more from the offensive. I think the Russians would rather have a static front that drags on for years. The Russians believe that the West will then tire of supporting Ukraine.
Paasikivi does not believe that Russia – even if they mobilize 300,000 soldiers – will have the ability to go on the offensive. The threat to Ukraine is instead a stagnant front.
– The main alternatives are that Ukraine wins this year or that there will be a protracted positional war. Those are the extreme cases.