It took only four months for the French to consume all the natural resources that the planet can provide in a year. This year, the “overshoot day”, an ecological concept developed by the Global Footprint Network, takes place this Thursday, May 5. On this date, France has emitted more greenhouse gases than the planet is capable of absorbing in a year, has cut down more trees than it is capable of producing in the same period of time. , or caught more fish than is naturally supplied by fish stocks.
Calculated annually, this indicator progresses from year to year. For France, this day occurred last year on May 14. On a global scale in 2021, the day of the overshoot had been reached on July 29. Using Global Footprint data, scientists and environmentalists can go back in time to calculate the gap in natural resource depletion. In 1970, the day of the overshoot took place on December 29, humanity could therefore live a year without affecting all that nature offered us in terms of ecological services. Since that date, however, the planet has been living on credit, and its debt is increasingly high. “The digging of the ecological debt by degrading natural resources continues and accelerates”, deplores Isabelle Autissier, the honorary president of WWF France. The NGO, which observes that on average between 1981 and 2007 the “overshoot day” advanced by 10 days at the end of each presidential term in France, was interested in the procedure to follow to make it go back under the new mandate of Emmanuel Macron.
Three more or less optimistic scenarios
In 2020, while the Covid-19 epidemic paralyzed the global economy, and many strict confinements were in force in several countries, the date of the overrun had seen a sharp decline of three weeks. The following year was marked by a sudden return to normal, with the resumption of economic activities and consumption. To be able to push back the “day of the overshoot”, it will therefore be a question of taking strong measures, recommend the authors of this study. “We wanted to project ourselves to follow consumption and what the signals on governance produce”, explains Isabelle Autissier. By evaluating three scenarios: “letting go”, “commitments already made”, and “ecological planning”, the WWF has been interested in the indicators allowing us to lower our pressure on environmental resources. “Result, with ecological planning, we can save 25 days on the current date of the overrun during the five-year term”, underlines the honorary president of the NGO.
The third scenario of the WWF thus provides for a second term of Emmanuel Macron resolutely turned towards ecology. “Halve the use of pesticides, reach 25% of land cultivated organically, carry out 700,000 complete renovations each year, support alternatives to the car such as the bicycle so that the French can use it for at least 15% of their movements”, the NGO lists a series of specific proposals to scrounge sector by sector fewer days of overrun.
On the other hand, according to their calculations, during a “laxity” scenario, which includes moderate development of renewable energies, continued growth in car traffic and only partial renovation of housing, it will advance from May 5 to May 3. (in 2027). A reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and in the consumption of animal protein will indeed have been initiated, making it possible to save a little on the date, but the increasing artificialization of the soil and uncontrolled logging will have prevented France from stabilize its footprint at the same level as in 2022 in relation to the available biocapacity, explains the WWF.
1.2 million jobs created
France has made commitments to promote ecological transition. Emmanuel Macron has thus promised to multiply by ten the power produced by solar energy and aims, among other things, to install 50 wind farms at sea by 2050, which could allow a strong reduction in carbon emissions. But according to the NGO’s calculations, the sharp increase in the demand for wood, based in particular on the development of biomass, could lead to a major destruction of ecosystems, and thus a limited reduction in the ecological footprint. As a result, France should only gain three days with an overrun which would occur on May 8.
To save days on our fateful date, planning must above all focus on CO2 emissions. By developing renewable energies now and on a massive scale, and by aiming for a 5% reduction in the average distance traveled in particular, 15 days could thus be gained. To manage to go back 10 days from the date of the overrun, the government will have to take care of food waste, or halve the consumption of overexploited fish and better manage the forests.
The ecological transition is a major upheaval for many economic sectors, but according to the WWF this planning would create or sustain 1.2 million jobs. “We were interested in agriculture, renewable energies, energy renovation, or even low-carbon vehicles… Our models take into account all these sectors, to obtain the number of jobs supported”, explains Pierre Cannet , advocacy manager at WWF France. According to his calculation, ecological planning would thus make it possible to save almost 300,000 jobs in relation to the commitments already made.