SET (SET). The results arrived ! The majority group Ensemble obtains a relative majority in the National Assembly by beating the left-wing alliance led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
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[Mis à jour le 20 juin 2022 à 00h56] Victory but with the taste of defeat for Emmanuel Macron and his Together coalition. If the results of the 2nd round of the legislative elections make it possible to get ahead of Nupes, the score is not the one hoped for. The coalition of President Emmanuel Macron (Ensemble!) is far from obtaining an absolute majority in the legislative elections in France, since it collects 245 seats according to the final figures from the Ministry of the Interior when 289 seats are needed to reach an absolute majority. The left-wing coalition, the Nupes, has 131 and the National Rally achieves a historic breakthrough with 89 seats. A result which will not make Jean-Luc Mélenchon a possible Prime Minister, the stated objective of the former leader of LFI but which will force Emmanuel Macron and his party to forge alliances in order to be able to govern and pass bills.
Emmanuel Macron and Together! obtain a relative majority in the National Assembly during this second round of the legislative election with 245 seats according to the Ministry of the Interior. That is enough to make Together! the first group in the National Assembly but it is clearly insufficient to govern alone and impose the tempo in the National Assembly. Already in the first round of legislative elections 2022, Sunday, June 12, the presidential majority Together! had obtained 25.75% of the votes cast, or 5,857,561 votes, according to the Ministry of the Interior, barely more than the Nupes credited with 25.66% while the RN obtained 18.68%. Never had a post-presidential legislative election been so close.
The first results from Overseas on Sunday morning also gave birth to an embarrassing setback for Ensemble! and a first blow for the government: Justine Benin, appointed Secretary of State for the Sea in the new government of Elisabeth Borne was beaten in Guadeloupe. She should therefore leave the government, according to the rule set by the executive before these legislative elections. In Guyana, Lénaïck Adam, outgoing LREM deputy in the 2nd constituency of Guyana, was also beaten by Davy Rimane, supported by LFI. Same thing in Polynesia where the candidate of the Nupes Tematai Le Gayic has made up for his heavy delay to win and become the youngest elected in the Assembly. Small consolation for Together! in New Caledonia with two elected deputies: Philippe Dunoyer and Nicolas Metzdorf.
Before 2e round of the legislative elections, the various parties that make up the Together coalition demonstrated public unity “to show that we have the same sense of responsibility”, as François Bayrou declared alongside Edouard Philippe during a public meeting Wednesday, June 15. The objective: to allow Emmanuel Macron to thwart the forecasts and to have an absolute majority in the National Assembly. However, behind the scenes, rivalries are raging on many levels and the result obtained this Sunday evening will no doubt only rekindle tensions.
♦ LREM more fragile in the 2022 legislative elections than in 2017
First, it should be noted that Emmanuel Macron’s party, La République en Marche, is no longer as powerful as when it emerged in 2016, to propel the then ex-Minister of the Economy at the Elysee. At the end of the legislative elections of 2017, the President of the Republic had 314 deputies stamped LREM and 47 for his ally of the MoDem. Then splits gradually took place, sometimes towards the center-left with the “Territory of Progress” party of Minister Olivier Dussopt, sometimes towards the center-right with the Agir party of Franck Riester then Horizons of Edouard Philippe. So many components that the Head of State had then under his control but which have since taken their political independence, while keeping their loyalty to the President of the Republic. In 2017, LREM had won 314 seats, ending however with 268 deputies after several splits and, therefore, without an absolute majority on its own
♦ Edouard Philippe and François Bayrou each seek to play a pivotal role in the Together coalition
A loyalty retained for the presidential election and the legislative elections, all the dissident political families of La République en Marche having supported Emmanuel Macron for these two elections. However, the Head of State had to come to terms with these new imposed allies to avoid having too many opponents of the same current (or almost) in the constituencies. Consequently, if 400 constituencies were granted to LREM candidates, 110 were granted to representatives of the MoDem and 58 for Horizons.
The coalition is not without risk, however, especially in relation to Edouard Philippe. If the former Prime Minister is always shown to be loyal to the Head of State, his political weight, but also his sympathetic rating (favorite political personality of the French), grant him both the status of ally and dissident of weight in the event of disagreement. Because if Emmanuel Macron does not obtain the majority (289 seats) with the only LREM candidates and it is the deputies stamped Horizons who allow him, the political force of his ex-tenant of Matignon will only be increased tenfold, him who can then brandish the threat of not voting in favor of a text emanating from the government or the parliamentary majority. François Bayrou could also do the same if they have a sufficient number of MoDem deputies to tip the scales.
♦ Tensions linked to the negotiations to be conducted in the event of a relative majority?
The structure of the presidential camp, made up of several political branches, could also see some cracks appear quickly in the absence of an absolute majority. Indeed, differences within Ensemble cannot be ruled out on the choice of the political family(ies) with whom the government could discuss to pass its laws. The macronist camp being made up of personalities from the left, starting with Elisabeth Borne, but also Richard Ferrand, Olivier Vrean, Christophe Castaner or Olivier Dussopt, as well as from the right, such as Gérald Darmanin, Bruno Le Maire, Edouard Philippe or even Pierre-Yves Bournazel, objections and tensions over the content of the negotiations to be conducted could break out, not without causing some turmoil within the coalition.
♦ The 2027 presidential election already in the sights, who will succeed Macron?
The maneuvers carried out to help Emmanuel Macron, while detaching themselves from it, were not launched without a second thought by Edouard Philippe or even François Bayrou. In sight, already, the presidential election of 2027, in which the President of the Republic will not be able to represent himself. What open the field of possibilities on the profile of his successor. A battle to take the reins of La République en Marche will inexorably begin, while the leaders of the allied parties will inevitably seek to gather a majority behind their project. Hostilities which could not be without consequence on the legislative work and considerably weaken the coalition of deputies behind Emmanuel Macron.