Deputy director of the Estonian International Defense Research Center ICDS, security policy expert Kristi Raik held by the French President Emmanuel Macron comment on the possible sending of Western troops to Ukraine, above all as a message to Ukraine.
– I think it was intended as a strong message that Europe will do everything necessary for Russia to lose the war.
Macron said yesterday that sending Western troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out in the future. He commented on the issue after hosting a meeting in Paris where 20 European countries, the United States and Canada decided to strengthen their support for Ukraine.
Also an expert in foreign and security policy Hannah Smith says Macron’s statement shows that Europe wants to support Ukraine more.
– This is a protracted war and Ukraine’s resources are currently quite small. Ukraine needs support.
Smith estimates that no concrete plans have been made to send troops.
– This should be taken strongly as an opening from which the discussion begins. The opening may be a total disaster, but at least it’s done and we can talk about it.
According to Raik, the goal of Macron and the European leaders is to show that no option is excluded. The goal is also to create uncertainty in Russia.
Raik considers it possible that Western countries could send troops to support Ukraine.
– Yes, if it is deemed necessary, but I don’t think that sending troops would be planned at this stage. Now the message was given that all possible means are under consideration and available if necessary.
Raik does not speculate on what kind of military presence it might be. He points out that Ukraine has not asked Europe for troops, but for weapons.
Smith does not believe that Western countries would send combat troops to Ukraine. Instead, soldiers from Western countries could potentially participate in training Ukrainian forces.
– Most of the states will say that until now a very strict line has been taken that NATO’s confrontation with Russia cannot be increased. The same applies to the EU.
Finland is knocked out, as are many other countries
Finnish President According to Sauli Niinistö There will be no Western military presence in Ukraine.
According to Niinistö, possible military and non-military means were discussed in Paris under Macron’s leadership.
– There was a widely shared perception that there would be no military presence. This was also Finland’s position, Niinistö says in his email reply to .
Chancellor of Germany By Olaf Scholz according to Paris, it was agreed that there will be no ground troops or soldiers sent by European countries or NATO countries to Ukraine.
The leaders of Poland and the Czech Republic also said in their joint press conference that they do not support the idea. Spain commented the same.
A spokesman for the British government signaled that Britain has no plans to send military forces to Ukraine. According to the spokesperson, Britain already has a small number of personnel in Ukraine to support the Ukrainian army by providing, for example, medical training.
The ammunition issue is more central
Macron said yesterday that long- and medium-range missiles and other munitions are being sent to Ukraine. According to Macron, behind this is a coalition formed by several states.
By sending troops, Raik considers the fact that France agreed to the possible purchase of ammunition to Ukraine from outside the EU to be a more important step than speculation.
– It has a huge meaning. Recently, the message from Ukraine has been that there is the most critical shortage of ammunition.
Raik mentions South Korea and Pakistan as countries outside of Europe from which ammunition can possibly be procured.
– There may also be countries that have not been publicly discussed.
Smith also considers the issue of ammunition to be central.
– The question is big. It should probably have been resolved a long time ago and it’s not until now that we start discussing different options.
According to Smith, the solution is still far away and there are many question marks. Ammunition could primarily be bought from NATO countries outside the EU, he estimates.
– Primarily, one could think that the question would be the United States, Canada and Turkey. After that, possibly other democracies in the world. But this is still a very theoretical discussion.
This is how foreign and security policy expert Hanna Smith assessed Macron’s opening:
Loose statement
Smith estimates that France is trying to take a stronger role in supporting Ukraine. However, Macron’s statement on the possible deployment of troops was loose.
– Macron is known for the fact that he comes out with strong openings, where things have not always been thought through. That is, how would this happen and what kind of entity would it be, that is, whose soldiers and under which flag. These are all open questions.
– The question of sending troops could take years, if it were not a question of a bilateral agreement between Ukraine and, for example, France. Then things can proceed much faster.
Sources: AP, AFP