An examination of the statistics for the last quarter of hockey reveals three Finnish Championship league teams that have the best chances to become Finnish champions, writes Timo Uusitalo of Urheilun.
Which Finnish Championship League has the most likely chance of becoming a champion in the puck reels ahead this spring? There are many variables, but statistics provide a wide range of support for making an estimate.
I like – thanks to the statistical criteria of the Hämeenlinna Palloserho’s surprise championship 2018-19 – the game performances of the last regular season and how the teams react to the losses they lost during the actual playing time from 1 January to 22 March. between.
When HPK reached the championship from the fifth place in the regular season, it was forced to dig some statistical nugget out of its regular season performance that would open the Club’s playoff game sensation. And it was found. HPK was the only league team in the 2018–19 season to play in the final quarter of the series without two consecutive losses in actual playing time.
At that time, not even the overwhelming number one fly in the base series could do that, even though it collected 38 points more than HPK in the entire regular season.
In hockey, it matters whether you lose a game in regular time, overtime or in a winning goal competition. Namely, there is quite a bit of coin toss, whichever team wins or loses in overtime when playing three against three. In the playoffs, there are no three-on-three games or winning goal games. Therefore, losses after the actual playing time should be excluded from the statistical comparison when evaluating potential champion candidates.
Last season, HIFK’s Finnish Championship bronze was no surprise
Championship candidates do not lose in the hockey league very often, if at all, twice in a row in regular time in the final quarter of the regular season. Such teams are extremely difficult to knock down in the playoffs, where four wins are needed to win the series.
Since the 2014–15 season, four league champions have completely avoided two consecutive losses in actual playing time in the new year. Twice the spring champion has suffered the least of those losses from the regular season teams.
Last season, three teams played from the turn of the year to the end of the regular season without losing more than two games to the tube in regular time. They were regular season winner Lukko, regular season second TPS and seventh in the series HIFK.
It was no big surprise that these three were the medals in that order after the spring playoffs. That is, even though HIFK only left for the seventh playoffs last year, they still had a real seam of success, as the well-honed and committed team in the regular season was able to stand up even after the loss. Still, TPS was even better than HIFK in the semifinals in the basics.
The champion is Tappara, Jukurit or, surprisingly, KooKoo
In this season’s regular season, three league teams were able to make an equally upright final quarter. Tappara, Jukurit and KooKoo did not lose more than twice in the new half of the year. So these teams have been playing long enough with the everyday span that gives them the right conditions for the Championship gold.
But which of the three then becomes the champion? Once the level and breadth are found, the statistics should dig an additional fact into the hunting of the master candidate. Last year’s Luko championship was easily interpreted based on statistics. This year, there will be more haircuts than before, with the best championship seam in the given criteria.
It is clear that Tappara, who succeeds in every category, has excellent fins to end the season with a festive humor. The champion of the regular season has been crowned the Finnish champion in the Finnish Champions League for the last six seasons played until the end. The home advantage is usually a trump card in the final games. This is a big advantage for Tappara in real games.
It may still sound unbelievable to some, but Jukurit, who is second in the regular season after Tappara, is no longer even surprising to be a possible Canadian pitcher – not even with the statistical criteria given in this case. Statistically, it would be a miracle if one of the top two in the regular season didn’t celebrate the puck championship in the spring.
The situation for KooKoo, who finished eighth in the regular season, is more difficult, although the team has kept the tendency with Tappara and Jukureid. First, the team didn’t get less than a week off before the playoffs, and it will inevitably gnaw at resources more than its real rivals. With a direct playoff spot, KooKoo would have been much better likely to be the champion.
No league team has ever risen from 7th to 10th place. until becoming a champion in the domestic hockey series. In the 2010–11 season, the Blues advanced to the Finnish Championship silver from nine in the regular season and HIFK to the Finnish Championship bronze last season after being seventh in the regular season. No other wonder stories have been seen from the first round of the playoffs.
When comparing the statistics, it should also be taken into account that KooKoon has only played 22 matches in the new year, while the sample for other teams is 24-27 matches. The people of Kymenlaakso did not play for almost a month in January because of the corona.
One statistic supports the success of Ilves
The heel season has left its mark on the last quarter of the game and this time brought more variables to the regular season match results. At least Ilves, HIFK and Lukko suffer from a considerable shortage of men, which partly explains the fact that there were more consecutive losses in the actual playing time than expected.
At the end of February, Ilves, who was third in the regular season, had one three-match losing streak in regular time. At that time, there were absences in the group due to the corona. There is one statistic in the league, which, however, favors Ilves’ championship.
The so-called advanced parameter has been in use since the 2014-2015 season and, with one exception, has been an exact match search when betting on a champion. These statistics show the sum of the team’s shot percentage and the rebound percentage when playing evenly. The PDO reading gives you a good idea of how the team is performing compared to their baseline, normal level.
The PDO statistical number one in the previous six regular season periods has been crowned Finnish champion as many as five times since the playoffs. Last year, Lukko was not only the hockey champion, but also the PDO kunk with the most even in the regular season. The only exception was the HPK in the 2018–19 season, which showed that the championship can be reached without a hefty PDO value.
TPS uptrend, Marjamäki Flies improved
At the turn of January-February, the fourth-placed TPS had one round of regular-time losses. If it was only due to the corona, then the people of Turku can be guaranteed success in the playoffs, as it pulled out the last 19 matches without losing two consecutive playing times.
In February, the HIFK series suffered three losing streak times in the actual playing time. Korona messed up the patterns, but that might not fully explain the two sub-periods. A year ago, the Reds pulled the end of the regular season sharper than they do now. IFK’s material always has potential for medals, but its mastery would be quite a “bubble” for that statistical analysis.
Kärpät, who stretched straight to the semi-finals in the final meters, bent in both consecutive matches in January and February and in the regular playing time. The flies have improved their defensive play and have not conceded more than three goals per match in regular time Lauri Marjamäki taken coaching responsibility at the end of February.
In March, HPK lost so many matches in regular time, such as the last four regular season matches, that the Club’s tank was empty before the decisive games. Access to the semi-finals is pretty much the maximum based on the current look.
The Pelicans, who finished ninth in the series, suffered a five-game losing streak at the end of January during the actual playing time. After a long good period that followed, the team lost twice in a row a week ago – be it for the rock-hard Jukuri and Tappara.
Reigning champion Lukko remained in the top ten in the series, losing twice in a row in regular time in February and once in March even four times in a row. The Regular Series also ended in two consecutive regular-time losses. This time, nothing speaks for the championship.