At the end of March 2020, the death counter had suddenly raced: a few tens, then a hundred, 500, and beyond 1000 deaths, during the peak of April of that same year, were announced in turn to the French confined and suspended from this morbid count of the health authorities. Ancient history?
In reality, nearly 250 French people still die every day from the virus in France, with a peak recorded at 467 deaths on January 25. These figures, certainly far from the records of spring 2020, move us less. “Our relationship to the pandemic has changed, as well as that to its deaths, he continues. There has been an effect of habituation to the situation”, wants to believe in an article from L’Express David Simard, doctor of philosophy of health.
These deaths also occur in this fifth wave, marked by the advent of the Omicron variant, considered less dangerous than the Delta. According to the latest data from the DREES, the Research, Studies, Evaluation and Statistics Department, the probabilities of dying from Covid are indeed much lower among those over 60 carrying the Omicron variant than the Delta, and the latter do not increase. strongly than after 80 years, even more particularly in the non-vaccinated. What, for a very large majority of the population, no longer really feel concerned.
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In his weekly report, Public Health France (SPF) however noted last week an increase in the number of deaths, around 8% over one week. And this, despite the dominance of the Omicron variant in PCR tests (at 99%), but also in critical care admissions (at 79%), as well as in these same deaths (at 57%), completed little after the Dres. Sign that ultimately, Omicron is not as “harmless” as it seemed.
The role of contamination
This new wave of deaths is primarily explained by the rise in infections, reaching peaks during the month of January. More than 350,000 cases of Covid-19 are still detected on average per day, down, but after peaks at more than half a million contaminations. In this situation, and “even with a less severe virus [le variant Omicron]there is mechanically a number of hospitalizations and deaths which increases”, comments Geneviève Chêne, director general of SPF, quoted by The world.
Pure statistical effect. In another article, the daily recalled the formula used by the British epidemiologist Adam Kucharski, in order to demonstrate how a more transmissible variant was ultimately more dangerous for humans. By applying a mortality rate of 0.8%, out of 10,000 cases of Covid, the scientist estimated that a strain with a reproduction rate of 1.1 (the original strain of Covid), would kill 129 people in 30 days. If we increase the mortality rate by another 50%, the number of deaths would, logically, rise to 193. On the other hand, by increasing the contagiousness, but without affecting mortality, the deaths would this time be established at 978.
The tension is therefore high in France, and it could still continue for a few days. The peak having just been reached in terms of contamination, that in the hospital could intervene within a fortnight. This will have consequences on the number of deaths.
Two biases, however: a significant part of deaths, more than 40%, are still due to the Delta variant. The extinction of this strain in contaminations (about 1%) could, conversely, reduce the number of deaths to a lower level. Finally, the distinction between hospital patients admitted “for” Covid and “with” Covid somewhat complicates the accounting of health authorities. How many deaths are really due to Covid? Is this figure overestimated? Hard to say.
Remains a reality: several million French people are not vaccinated. Among them, and also, among the immunocompromised, “greatly forgotten” by Covid according to our columnist Gilles Pialoux, the risks of dying from Covid will remain higher for a long time than among others.