The former Minister of Health passed the first round in the first constituency of Isère. However, he is in an unfavorable ballot. What result is expected for Olivier Véran?
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Olivier Véran managed to reach the second round of the legislative elections in the first constituency of Isère. He is nevertheless in an unfavourable position facing the New Popular Front candidate, Hugo Prévost. The latter obtained 40.19% of the votes cast this Sunday, June 30, against 33.62% for the former Minister of Health. In third place, the RN candidate, Alexandre Lacroix, collected 18.34% of the votes. A three-way race will therefore take place on Sunday.
Olivier Véran reacted to the results by congratulating residents for not having “fallen into the trap of the extreme right”. However, he did not hesitate to attack his NFP opponent on X: “with Hugo Prévost, we are not talking about a peaceful student with left-wing ideas: he is a resolute supporter of LFI, sent from Paris by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, where he is blocking his university in the manner of a Louis Boyard. In his profession of faith, neither his own photo nor the slightest trace of the first constituency appears. It is simply a leaflet for Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party, without any consideration, idea or interest for our territory. It would be a catastrophe if he became a member of parliament”.
What result for Olivier Véran in the second round of the legislative elections?
Olivier Véran became a member of parliament again in January 2024 during the cabinet reshuffle, after having served as Minister of Health and government spokesperson. Will he then pay for his absence or the consequences of his various mandates?
The former minister, however, knows the constituency well. In 2017, he was elected with 68.9% of the vote. In 2022, he won against the left with 55.53% of the votes cast in the second round. Will the left then reverse the situation? In the European elections, the left-wing lists had done well in the constituency: 48% by adding together socialists, rebels, ecologists and communists. The maintenance of the RN candidate could also harm Olivier Véran, dividing the votes. It will also be necessary to see where the votes of the 6.98% who had chosen the LR candidate will go. Will the vote be transferred rather towards the RN or towards the presidential majority represented by Olivier Véran?
Furthermore, according to an Ipsos Toluna poll for France 2 dated June 30, which anticipates the number of seats by party and not by political union, the RN could obtain between 204 and 244 seats and their allies from Ciott between 26 and 36 seats, followed by the NFP which would obtain 180 to 200 seats, including 58 to 72 LFI, 33 to 43 PS, 28 to 38 EELV, 6 to 12 PCF. The presidential camp and its allies would come third with between 60 and 90 seats, including 53 to 71 Renaissance, 13 to 19 MoDem, 4 to 10 Horizons. The Republicans and various right-wing parties can hope for between 41 and 61 seats. However, these are trends observed at a specific time but which seem to show that the candidates of the majority have less chance of being elected than those of the two other major political forces.