“Scholz is the wrong candidate.” The German newspaper Der Spiegel don’t mince words. If the current chancellor had no other choice than to call new legislative elections after the explosion of the coalition he led since 2021 with the Greens and the Liberals, his candidacy for re-election raises questions until ‘at the heart of the social democratic party. Who is starting to wonder if he really represents the best chance of winning the vote on February 23 – or at least of saving the furniture, given his strong unpopularity. “It’s over, everyone knows it now”, was already scathing the popular newspaper Bild in an editorial this Wednesday. “Who’s going to tell the chancellor?” asks the weekly for its part Die Zeit.
Until now, however, the leaders of the SPD are closing ranks behind their leader, whose alliance with the Greens and the liberals of the FDP has been shattered due to differences that have become insurmountable in terms of economic and budgetary policy. “Olaf Scholz is our candidate for chancellor and it is with him that we are going to the elections”, assured this Thursday Saskia Esken, vice-president of the social democratic party, to Politico.
A “heavy burden”
The head of the SPD parliamentary group Rolf Mützenich acknowledged some “growls” from local social democrats demanding that Olaf Scholz give way to his Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. But the discontent is more pronounced: “the SPD executives are also worried”, assures Die Zeit. The chancellor, whose party is at 15% in the polls, hopes to make a comeback similar to that of 2021. Conditions have, however, changed. On the one hand, the conservatives are uniting behind their candidate this time. On the other hand, “Olaf Scholz has failed as chancellor”, believes Der Spiegeland thus represents, as a candidate, “a heavy burden for the party”.
According to a Forsa poll, only 13% of voters think the SPD should run with him. A “disastrous” figure, according to Spiegel. And which contrasts all the more with that of another member of the SPD, Boris Pistorius, whom 58% of voters would like to see as a candidate for the chancellery, and who indeed seems to be the rising figure of the German social democratic party. Promoted to Minister of Defense in January 2023, the former regional elected official from Lower Saxony has long been at the top of the popularity rankings, all political colors combined. Energetic, friendly, speaking clearly, this 64-year-old man stands out against the austere Olaf Scholz, champion of convolutions.
Boris Pistorius is expected to win not only against the latter, if the Germans could directly elect their chancellor, but also against Friedrich Merz, the leader of the conservative opposition CDU/CSU, credited with some 32% of the votes in the polls. However, at this stage, the minister appears to be a loyal soldier: “We have a federal chancellor, and he is the candidate designated for chancellor,” he recently clarified.
The Social Democrats, however, fear a “Martin Schulz” effect. The latter, SPD candidate in the 2017 federal elections, started as “the king of the polls”, recalls Die Zeit. Before ending up more than 11 points behind Angela Merkel’s CDU, in the worst score recorded by her camp in post-war elections.
“A real challenge”
However, a candidacy from Boris Pistorius would represent “a real challenge” for his competitors, recognizes Wolfgang Kubicki, member of the FDP, the liberal party. Classified in the camp of “conservative social democrats” and in favor of increased aid to Ukraine against the Russian invasion, the minister is not unanimous in an SPD still imbued with pacifism, a very widespread position in Germany since the horrors of Nazism.
During a speech in the Bundestag this Wednesday, Olaf Scholz also welcomed his “caution” towards Ukraine and a possible conflagration in the region. In particular, by once again justifying its refusal to supply kyiv with long-range missiles, the famous German “Taurus”. For his part, Boris Pistorius, a trained lawyer, continues to warn of the Russian threat. He shocked his comrades after saying he wanted to restore to the Bundeswehr, the German army neglected since the end of the Cold War, its “capacity to wage war”. He was also criticized for his lack of experience as chancellor, which he shared with Friedrich Merz.
If the latter judges that the SPD is in a “difficult situation” because of its unpopular leader, he is not counting on a last minute withdrawal, like Joe Biden in the United States: “They will have to come forward willingly or unwillingly. federal elections with Olaf Scholz”, he said on Wednesday. According to current projections, the new executive is likely to be led by the conservatives, with possibly the social democrats as coalition partners.