Could we have a new German government before 2025? Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he was ready, under conditions, to submit to a vote of confidence by deputies by the end of the year with a view to accelerating the organization of early legislative elections, after the breakdown of his coalition government.
“It is not a problem for me to ask the question of confidence before Christmas” in the Bundestag, if the ruling Social Democratic Party and the conservative opposition agree on this, Olaf Scholz said this Sunday in a interview on public television ARD. Last Wednesday, he mentioned the date of January 15 to raise the question of confidence with legislative elections at the end of March. “I also want this to go quickly,” he said. “Germany urgently needs a new democratically legitimate government,” he added.
After the confidence vote, which Olaf Scholz is expected to lose, no longer having a sufficient majority in Parliament, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag and new elections must take place within 60 days.
The chances of having a new German government by the end of the year therefore appear low. But since the explosion this Wednesday of the government coalition initially formed by the social democrats of Olaf Scholz, the ecologists and the liberals, due to deep disagreements on economic policy, pressure is mounting on the chancellor for the rapid organization of ‘elections. Calls have multiplied for the legislative elections to be held as soon as possible, while the challenges are numerous for the largest European economy, on the verge of recession and which fears the consequences of a return of Donald Trump at the head of the States -United.
The conservatives well ahead in the polls
In an interview with the weekly Sternthe conservative candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, had called on Olaf Scholz to seek a vote of confidence last Wednesday, the day the chancellor planned to make a government declaration in the Bundestag.
Friedrich Merz also called for elections on January 19, while his party is leading in the polls. The conservative leader has made a rapid vote of confidence in the Bundestag a precondition for his party to provide support for a series of important bills that Olaf Scholz’s government wants to pass in Parliament before the elections. This Monday, the federal director of elections, Ruth Brand, is due to hold a virtual meeting with her regional colleagues, with the aim of studying the organization of the vote.
According to a poll published Sunday in the German weekly Bild carried out by the Insa institute, the conservatives remain the largest political force with an unchanged score of 32%, followed by the far-right AfD at 19%. Olaf Scholz’s SPD comes in behind at 15%. The two other members of Olaf Scholz’s ex-coalition are credited with 10% for the Greens and 4% for the Liberals, i.e. below the threshold of 5% necessary to remain in the Bundestag. Suffice to say that the alternation seems closer than ever at the head of Germany.