He narrowly avoided disaster. The victory of his party (SPD, social democrats) in the Brandenburg election on September 22, by a narrow margin over the far right (AfD), gave Olaf Scholz some breathing space. But for the most unpopular chancellor Germany has ever known, the relief may be short-lived.
Because the government he leads, mired in its quarrels and contradictions, seems less and less capable of holding the helm. Raising financial orthodoxy to the rank of dogma, the Liberal Party, one of his coalition partners, is blocking most of the social measures taken by the SPD, while the Greens, held responsible for the country’s economic decline because of their energy choices, are completely demonetized. It is doubtful that such a team will hold up until the next federal elections in a year.
For the conservative opposition, and its recently installed candidate, Friedrich Merz, the path to the Chancellery therefore seems clear. He will still have to clarify his positions in many areas, such as energy and, above all, immigration. In recent months, the conservatives have continued to urge Olaf Scholz to toughen his asylum policy. This is a complete turnaround for Angela Merkel’s party, which in 2015, on the contrary, opened the borders to refugees. A policy that her opponents, as the election approaches, will not fail to remind her of. Starting with the AfD, which won around 30% of the vote in the recent regional elections.