LEGISLATIVE SURVEY. The latest poll on the legislative elections expects a close match in the first round between Nupes and Ensemble, while Emmanuel Macron may not have a majority in the National Assembly.
Will Emmanuel Macron have a majority in the National Assembly? Are we moving towards a cohabitation? Will an unprecedented political situation take place at the Bourbon Palace? Three days before the first round of the legislative elections, the results of the latest poll shed some light on the face that the lower house of Parliament could have on 19th June next, on the evening of the second round. And the latest figures are enough to give the President of the Republic and his entourage a few cold sweats, when Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his family can advance confidently towards the ballot. Because like the surveys on voting intentions published in recent days, Together (coalition LREM, MoDem, Horizons, Agir) could not win a majority in the National Assembly. The Head of State would then be obliged to negotiate his texts with other political forces. Because if it could not have at least 289 deputies, the coalition of support for the action of Emmanuel Macron should not however face a political coalition more powerful than it. According to the results of the polls, Nupes will not exceed 200 elected officials, while the RN could only count, in the best case, 60 deputies, when LR would only have a maximum of 50. But the match promises to be very tight between LREM and the union of the left.
What do the latest polls say about voting intentions for the 2022 legislative elections?
The latest poll from the Ipsos-Sopra Steria institute for Radio France and France Television, published Thursday June 9, gives Nupes (28%) just ahead of Together (27%), when the RN would collect 19.5% of the vote, far ahead of LR (11%) and Reconquest (6%). It is therefore a real match between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon which is looming this Sunday, June 12.
According to this same latest poll, Emmanuel Macron may not obtain a parliamentary majority. A scenario that has never happened before in the history of the Fifth Republic, an elected president always starting his term with 289 deputies or more of his political side. However, projections made by Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate that Ensemble (LREM, MoDem, Horizons, Agir) would win between 260 and 300 seats. The majority is therefore not acquired, even if the high projection could reassure the troops in Macronie. The other seats would mainly be won by the Nupes, between 175 and 215. Insufficient, even in the best of cases, to impose cohabitation. LR would record a sharp decline (35 to 55 deputies) when the RN could have 20 to 60 elected officials.
*The number of seats corresponds to the average between the low projection and the high projection made by the polling institute.
What participation rate do the polls predict?
An Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for The world, dated Wednesday June 8, estimates that only 44 to 48% of respondents (10,826) plan to vote in the first round of legislative elections on June 12. The institute indicates that “demobilization concerns all age categories up to 60 years old: 37% of ‘certain to vote’ among 18-24 year olds, 36% among 25-34 year olds, 38% among 35-49 year olds, 42% among 50-59 year olds. , 65% in the over 70s.
Do the French want cohabitation?
According to an Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI published on Tuesday May 31, 63% of French people want to see cohabitation at the end of the 2022 legislative elections. This means that they want the opposition parties to obtain an absolute majority in the Assembly, which would force Emmanuel Macron to choose a new Prime Minister from an opposing political formation. This trend was already strong on the evening of the second round of the presidential election: in an Ifop poll for TFI, LCI, Paris Match and Sud Radio, 68% of voters questioned wanted that at the end of the legislative elections, “the oppositions represent the majority deputies to the National Assembly and impose cohabitation on Emmanuel Macron”.
Difficult to produce reliable polls for the legislative elections
Please note: the votes for the legislative elections will be very different from those cast for this presidential election. Other components structure this vote: the weight of the parties established in the territories, the political personalities appreciated locally, the political rapprochements at the level of the constituencies, and the method of voting, majority in two rounds. All this makes the job of pollsters difficult. But if it is impossible to make precise projections, certain elements must be taken into account to measure the balance of power. In the 566 metropolitan and overseas constituencies (excluding the constituencies of French nationals living abroad), Emmanuel Macron came out on top, in the first round of the presidential election, in 256. Marine Le Pen in 206, Jean -Luc Mélenchon in 104, Valérie Pécresse in… none. But remember that in 2017, Marine Le Pen managed to lead the first round of the presidential election in 216 constituencies; the far-right party had only managed to elect 9 deputies.
A desired defeat of Emanuel Macron?
Two other surveys also lean very clearly towards cohabitation for this second five-year term of Emmanuel Macron. The first one, conducted by OpinionWay for Cnews and Europe 1, indicates that 63% of those polled prefer that the Head of State “does not have a majority and is forced to cohabit”, against 35% who want him “to have a majority in the National Assembly and can pursue its policy”. The detailed figures corroborate the Ifop survey: 95% of voters for Marine Le Pen, 84% of those for Eric Zemmour, 77% of voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 63% of those for Yannick Jadot and 55% of those of Valérie Pécresse prefer to see Macron fail in the June legislative elections. OpinionWay also surveyed its sample on the desired cohabitation Prime Minister: 46% would favor Marine Le Pen and 44% for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, while only 8% would prefer Valérie Pécresse.
Last survey of its kind published on the evening of the second round: a Ipsos Sopra-Steria survey for France TV, Le Parisien and Radio France, is more measured. But the majority (56%) of respondents also answer that they want Emmanuel Macron to lose the legislative elections, against 24% who prefer a victory to “avoid cohabitation” and 20% who want it “to apply his program”. The trends remain the same, with a few deviations, with 87% of Marine Le Pen voters in favor of a defeat, 84% of those of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, 80% of those of Eric Zemmour, 49% of those of Yannick Jadot and 40% of those of Valérie Pécresse. Note: 57% of those questioned say they are in favor, during the legislative elections, of an alliance of left-wing parties (LFI, EELV, PCF and PS), including 93% of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters and 85% from those of Yannick Jadot.
Wishes also expressed by political party in the legislative elections
The same poll by Ipsos Sopra Steria also asks the question of the legislative elections in a slightly different way by asking respondents if they want parties to emerge “strengthened” or “weakened” from the elections. A question that is still far from a voting intention, but comes slightly closer. In this little game, 39% say they want to see La France Insoumise “reinforced” after the election next June against 29% who would prefer it “weakened”, a figure comparable to that of the National Rally with 38% (against 36% ).
Behind, the balance is systematically reversed: 36% want to see Europe-Ecologie Les Verts “weakened” (against 29% “strengthened”), 38% for the Republic on the Move (against 26%), 40% for the Communist Party (against 16%), 44% for the Reconquest party! of Eric Zemmour (against 20%) and finally 47% for the Socialist Party (against 18%) tied with Les Républicains (against 15% “reinforced”). Note that a quarter to a third of respondents answer “neither one nor the other” the question.