Sweden’s forecasts from the Energy Agency are based on the fact that electricity from new nuclear power is expected to cost 55-60 öre per kilowatt hour. To be compared with 35 öre for wind power on land.
SVT can now reveal that Vattenfall has received price information from several suppliers of smaller so-called SMR reactors. The conclusion is costs of 90-112 öre per kilowatt hour. Almost twice as much as previous assessment, that is.
– If nuclear power costs one kroner per kilowatt hour, it doesn’t look like any new nuclear power will be built at all, says Martin Johansson, head of unit at the Energy Agency.
“The foundation stone for the state to step in”
In the Energy Agency’s analyses, the price is expected to increase, mainly around the year 2045, with spot prices of 50-60 öre in annual average. The models show that if nuclear power becomes 20 percent more expensive than expected, profitability will drop so steeply that it is doubtful whether new reactors will be built at all.
Previously, the government has said that it strives for technology neutrality in energy policy and that new nuclear power plants will be built on a market basis.
In the Tidö agreement, SEK 400 billion was announced in credit guarantees for new nuclear power. Now both the government and Vattenfall say that it will not be enough. Even more subsidies are required.
– Yes, it is a cornerstone that the state steps in and shares the risk with us, says Desireé Comstedt, head of nuclear business development at Vattenfall.
Multi-billion dollar support is required
The price of 90-112 öre applies above all to the first new nuclear power plant to be built. If Sweden wants to build the equivalent of two large new nuclear reactors by 2035, as the government recommends, approximately SEK 4-5 billion per reactor per year in subsidies is required.
If the equivalent of ten new reactors are built by 2045, as the government wants, the subsidy per reactor may be lower because Vattenfall estimates that the price per reactor will drop if more of the same model are built. But in total, according to the Energy Agency, it is about hundreds, or over a thousand billion kroner, in future subsidies for nuclear power.