The gas issue has been a recurring stumbling block since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. During the war, Russian gas continued to flow into Europe via a main pipeline through Ukraine, but on December 31 this year the agreement between the countries expires.
For the Russian oil company Gazprom, it means a big loss, says Emil Wannheden, analyst and economist at the Total Defense Research Institute, FOI, and specialist in Russian economics.
– Gazprom has major financial challenges, so for them it is very important to continue exporting the gas, he says.
Ukraine has ruled out an extension of the agreement, but the announcement is not welcomed by everyone. Last week, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has been described as pro-Russian, threatened retaliation.
– If it is unavoidable, we will stop the electricity supply, which Ukraine is in urgent need of in the event of disturbances in the electricity grid, Fico said.
Gas via intermediaries
According to Emil Wannheden, Russia could round off a gas stop to the Central European countries that are still interested, such as Slovakia and Hungary, with deliveries via pipelines through Turkey or Azerbaijan.
– Gas does not come with a label, so it could be possible to mix the gas. Or that the countries further export Russian gas, he says.
No sanctions on liquefied gas
After Russia’s invasion, the EU set the goal of stopping all imports of Russian fossil fuels by 2027. Dependence on Russian energy has decreased sharply and today around 16 percent of the EU’s imported gas comes from Russia.
But in one area it is going in the opposite direction.
Earlier in December published Financial Times a report that showed that in 2024 the EU has imported record quantities of liquefied gas, so-called LNG gas, from Russia. Among the major buyers are France, Spain and Belgium.
– That trade has flown a bit under the radar. The fact that we continue to import liquefied gas from Russia goes against the sanctions we have, says Emil Wannheden.
As long as there are no sanctions on liquefied natural gas, it is up to each EU country to make the decisions.
– The main way we have to put pressure on Russia economically is to reduce their export of energy. Primarily oil, secondarily gas.