Ukraine has a lot at stake at the NATO summit in Vilnius this week. Important and possibly far-reaching decisions for Ukraine are made there.
Ukraine received good news today when France announced that it will supply long-range SCALP missiles to Ukraine. The missile is similar to the British-supplied Storm Shadow missile. Other significant arms assistance is also planned.
The NATO leaders also decided on a substantial continuation of other support and on the simplification of membership, although the invitation to join will still have to wait.
From the point of view of Ukraine, the announcements of new arms aid packages are important, because Ukraine’s counter-offensive is progressing slowly.
The battles are centered on Bahmut
Ukraine has said that it has achieved success in the Bahmut area, where it is pressuring the Russian forces in the city. Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi said this week that the Russians are trapped in the town of Bahmut, and that Ukraine has the upper hand in firepower in the area.
An expert on the next war of John Helin according to the fighting is increasingly concentrated around the city of Bahmut.
– The battles in Bahmut have become more intense, says Helin.
Together with his team, Helin maintains a situational map of the front lines in Ukraine.
Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Maljarin according to Ukraine controls the high areas around the city. With that, according to Maljar, Ukraine has managed to control the city’s escape routes and cause losses to the Russians.
– The recapture of Bahmut could be politically important, because its defense was criticized a lot, says Helin.
Southern Front – Ukraine is slowly crawling forward
There have been almost no changes on the southern front. Battles have taken place, for example, on the outskirts of the village of Robotyne.
According to Helin, Ukraine has not achieved any real breakthroughs in the region.
– The situation on the southern front is almost static. Ukraine is progressing very slowly, crawling, says Helin.
In order for the Ukrainians to break through, they would first have to break through Russia’s heavily fortified defensive lines.
However, Robotyne is not about this. According to Helin, the obstacle in Robotyne is more the Russians’ first level of defense, which is not yet part of Russia’s heavily fortified chain.
According to Helin, Ukraine might try to weaken Russian forces in the region, after which Ukraine would try to make a bigger breakthrough.
– The chosen tactic seems to be wearing down Russian forces in the region. Through consumption to create breakthroughs in the longer term, says Helin.
Russia is pressing in the north
Russia has not been completely on the defensive, but has also been attacking further north in the Luhansk region for at least a couple of weeks. The fighting is concentrated in the Kreminna area, where there are many forests.
According to Helin, Russia is hardly trying to achieve any real breakthrough in the region.
– Russia is probably trying to get Ukraine to commit its reserves to the north. The purpose is to force the Ukrainians to react and reduce Ukraine’s ability to attack, says Helin.
According to Helin, Russia has brought a relatively large number of offensively capable troops to the region. It has also achieved minor success in the region.
Ukraine has had to change its tactics
Ukraine has said that the slow progress is due to the fact that it wants to save lives. Another reason, according to Ukraine, was the lack of weapons.
However, according to Helin, Ukraine has had to change its original offensive tactics as a result of necessity.
– Yes, Ukraine tried to mechanize the attack with force in the beginning, but it did not succeed, says Helin.
According to him, long-term slow and exhausting warfare is not necessarily a reasonable solution.
– There is also a possibility that there will be more losses than would occur in one successful big breakthrough, says Helin.
However, Helin admits that Ukraine has changed its tactics also because it does not have to spend its new reserves “banging its head against the wall”, but troops can be used when the time is right.