Prime Minister François Bayrou could decide to use article 49.3 of the Constitution four times this week on various texts of the 2025 budget. So many censorship motions against him should follow.
Prime Minister François Bayrou has decided to use article 49.3 of the Constitution to have the 2025 budget adopted. With this decision, he engages the responsibility of his government and is already exposed to a motion of censorship of The part of rebellious France (LFI), and potentially other opposition forces present in the National Assembly. The announcement of this decision was rendered by the tenant of Matignon himself before the Parliament, this Monday, February 3, before the vote of the inevitable motion of rebellious censorship, in two days, Wednesday, February 5.
A first censorship motion dedicated to failure?
In fact, it is unlikely that this motion of censorship will be voted. The PS national office made its decision on Monday: it voted in favor of the non-censorship of the government of François Bayrou on the state and social security budget, as indicated Public Senate. 59 MPs have spoken out in favor of non-censorship, while 4 still plan to vote in favor of censorship. The socialist group in the Assembly confirmed that the deputies would abstain on this motion.
In this case, even if the national rally joins the Motion of Censorship of LFI (it will communicate its final decision on Wednesday, February 5), the government cannot fall, because the absolute majority would not be reached. Indeed, 289 votes are necessary for a censorship motion to be validated. The NFP (excluding PS) represents 126 votes, if we add those of the RN (124) and its Ciottist allies (16), support for censorship pass to 266 votes, still not enough to overthrow the executive in place.
Three other 49.3 in the week?
Surprise however this Monday: a second 49.3 was drawn by the Béarnais in the hemicycle. In addition to the state budget, the Prime Minister has acted a second passage in the Social Security financing bill (PLFSS), the one who had cost the former government chief, Michel Barnier. A way for François Bayrou to avoid examining a preliminary rejection motion.
But that’s not all. The Prime Minister could actually decide to resort to article 49.3, not twice, but rather four times this week: “will follow two others on this same text: Wednesday to have the recipe part adopted and Friday for The expenditure part, “reveals politico in his political newsletter on Monday. Whenever François Bayrou decides to engage the responsibility of government on a text, this will generate a motion of censorship as on the state budget with LFI.“A country like ours cannot remain without budget. The only means is to engage the responsibility of the government,” the head of government told the gallery on Sunday.