North Korea’s state television channel KRT showed the dictator on Thursday Kim Jong-Un standing in front of the map. In the picture, he points to the capital of South Korea, Seoul, with his finger.
In the same context, it was reported that Kim Jong-Un has called on the armed forces and industry to prepare for a possible war.
More weapons must be produced and military exercises expanded.
A little earlier, pictures of Kim visiting different weapons factories for several days had been shown on television.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the Chinese delegation visited Pyongyang in late July.
Shoigu’s visit raised the question of whether North Korea will start selling weapons to Russia in order for its armed forces to perform better in Ukraine.
– Russia certainly wanted something from this trip. Russia has a better chance to cooperate with dictatorship countries, says the docent of military science Ilmari Cuckold.
– Russia is not only aiming to equip itself against Ukraine, but in the long term to increase its armed forces with other threats in mind.
According to Käihkö, North Korea has already delivered some trainloads of ammunition to the Russians during the war of aggression against Russia. North Korea has denied the arms deliveries.
What do the pictures show about Kim Jong-Un? Could the next war break out on the Korean Peninsula?
Käihkö says that he will comment on the matter on a general level. War is hard to predict.
– It wouldn’t be a smart bet under any circumstances. But neither is the Russian war. Stupid solutions are the most surprising of all.
The army’s bloat is used to cover up the country’s internal problems
According to Käihkö, in North Korean threats and the bulging of the army, you can see similarities to those countries with a lot of internal problems.
– Creating threat images is one way to divert attention away from internal problems. This has also been seen in Russia.
During his recent visit to North Korea, the Russian Defense Minister was shown grandiose military parades decorated with fireworks, which, according to experts, also included the latest intercontinental ballistic nuclear missiles.
According to Käihkö, the videos are propaganda and tell more about weakness than strength.
– For example, the more uncertain one is about one’s sense of nationality, the more emphasis should be placed on it. Military parades underline national strength. Somehow that also tells us that the army needs to be presented, and there is nothing to show, for example, in the field of culture.
Dictatorships deliberately keep military forces weak
How capable is North Korea’s military? Could it be a real threat to South Korea and with it to the United States and the whole world?
– North Korea is known to have large military forces, but what matters is how trained and loyal the soldiers and officer ranks are.
According to Käihkö, in dictatorships, the military forces are often deliberately considered weak, because the armed forces are the only institution that can practically seize power.
This can also be seen in Russia.
– Loyalty is important, not ability, Käihkö summarizes.
A crisis or war on the Korean peninsula would involve the United States
A crisis or war on the Korean peninsula would benefit Russia. After all, the United States supports South Korea, and North Korea’s military actions in South Korea would also involve it.
According to Käihkö, that would be a horror scenario.
– The United States is preparing to fight two big wars at the same time. Would such a crisis on the Korean peninsula be the starting point for China to occupy Taiwan. Yes, it would take attention and resources away from the United States.
On the other hand, according to Käihkö, China would probably do everything to avoid a crisis on the Korean peninsula. China does not want the United States to have a more permanent or wider foothold in its neighborhood than it currently has.
What about North Korea’s possible attack intentions?
According to Käihkö, even North Korea is aware that an attack to the south would also be a threat to the country’s administration. Ultimately, however, the goal of the administration is to stay in power.
North Korea’s nuclear weapons program increases the regime’s stability and permanence. On the other hand, threats and intimidation with combined arms is a foreign policy tool that improves negotiating positions.
– As noticed, it allowed for negotiations with the President of the United States Donald Trump’s in the season, Käihkö reminds.
Source: Reuters