Leather jacket and black glasses, Kim Jong-un, flanked by senior officers in full uniform, emerges from a huge hangar, with a determined step – the scene is filmed in slow motion, a grandiloquent soundtrack. The North Korean dictator then looks carefully at his watch, before the final count and the firing of a “monster missile”. Broadcast on North Korean television, this Hollywood-style propaganda film, in mode Top Gun, is supposed to glorify the launch, on March 24, of the last intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) produced by Pyongyang: the Hwasong-17, capable of carrying nuclear warheads and striking the heart of American territory.
This “miraculous victory” won “by the great Korean people” for “the security of the country and the eternal well-being of future generations”, says the official KCNA agency, however, leaves some observers skeptical. The South Korean army sees the missile as a simple Hwasong-15 – previous version already printed in 2017 – improved. South Korean MP Ha Tae-keung, on the specialized site NK News, described the shooting as a “big lie” to make people forget the failure, on March 16, of that of a real Hwasong-17. Cautious, the Americans “continue to analyze the data”, according to the Pentagon.
One thing is certain, Kim Jong-un wants to prove that he exists, while the attention of the international community is focused on the war in Ukraine. “North Korea is following a program of developing various tactical weapons. It needs to test and show that it is successful,” said Go Myong-hyun of the Asan Institute.
According to the American Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS), it is preparing a strategic ballistic ground-sea missile test, part of its “deterrent strategy”. The craft would leave from 8.24 Yongung, a small North Korean ballistic missile submarine. And rumors are circulating about a possible nuclear test – the first since the fall of 2017. Pyongyang would then completely bury the moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests decided in 2018, in the midst of a drop in tensions on the peninsula.
“Beijing pushes Pyongyang to limit trials”
The “provocations” of the North are aimed in particular at the new South Korean president, Yoon Seok-youl, a conservative who has promised to be firm towards Pyongyang. But these tests also respond to internal issues. Since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, North Korea has been experiencing serious economic difficulties, raising fears of serious episodes of famine. Hence the need, faced with the risk of discontent, to remobilize the North Koreans behind their leader – while fighting against “deviations”. Kim Jong-un called for “thoroughly focusing the ideological campaign on anti-socialist practices” : a warning to those who would dare to rebel against his authority.
This social stability is all the more crucial for the regime as it will celebrate this year, on April 15, the 110th birthday of the country’s founder, Kim Il-sung (1912-1994). “The legitimacy of Kim Jong-un is that he is the grandson of Kim Il-sung and the son of Kim Jong-il, recalls Cheong Seong-chang, of the Sejong Institute. the beginning of the year indicate that the country is capable of real successes, at least in defense. The need to create a festive atmosphere for Kim Il-sung’s birthday is a major motivation.”
Pyongyang is taking advantage of the fact that international tensions with Russia prohibit for the time being any consideration of new UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea. Washington, Seoul and Tokyo have thus called for a vague “firm response” to the firing of the ICBM. The opposition of the Moscow-Beijing axis with the West could even prompt Moscow and Beijing to limit the application of existing sanctions against Pyongyang, which opposed the UN resolution criticizing the invasion of the Ukraine.
“Beijing does not want a serious crisis in the region and is pushing Pyongyang to limit testing. China’s priorities are always to have a stable, divided and non-nuclear peninsula”, recalls however Andreï Lankov, of the South Korean university Kookmin. All powerful in his videos, Kim does not have his hands completely either. free.