But what about North Korea? Pyongyang has been increasing ballistic tests for a few weeks, with up to 23 shots on November 2. A spiral likely to degenerate into a nuclear conflict. Eric Ballbach, researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and specialist on the Korean peninsula, deciphers the motivations of the autocrat Kim-Jong un regime and calls on Europe to act.
L’Express: Why is North Korea increasing its missile launches today? Is it taking advantage of the fact that the international community has its sights set on Ukraine ?
Eric Ballbach: In my opinion, it certainly started before Ukraine. In January 2021, North Korea already announced a five-year defense modernization plan, in which so-called tactical nuclear weapons play a crucial role. So far, the country has focused on the development and testing of conventional strategic nuclear weapons. Tactical nuclear weapons are shorter in range, and are designed to achieve more limited and immediate military objectives. This shows that the country is adapting to a changing international and regional context and – from its point of view – “normalizing” its status as a nuclear power.
In January 2022, she did more missile tests than before in the space of a month. But I agree to link the two events. The war in Ukraine gives North Korea more room to maneuver, and reinforces the country’s strategic importance to Russia and China. For the first, North Korea is one of the few countries that supports it. She voted against the United Nations resolution in March denouncing Russian aggression in Ukraine. According to rumors that have not been fully confirmed, she sent ammunition to Russia. The situation is similar for China, which North Korea supports on the question of Taiwan. It is one of the few countries to do so explicitly.
Why is nuclear weapon such a challenge for North Korea?
For each country striving to obtain nuclear weapons, the rule of the three p’s is invoked: power, politics, prestige. In this case, it is first and foremost a means of ensuring the survival of the regime, its main security umbrella. It’s a way to stabilize it. North Korea highlights the examples of Iraq and Libya: if these countries had possessed nuclear weapons, it asserts, the United States would not have attacked them. The idea is that the outside world is extremely dangerous and you have to protect yourself against it. It is also, obviously, to reinforce the prestige of the regime.
What are the historical reasons for this hostility between the United States and North Korea North?
During the Korean War (1950-1953), which officially opposed North Korea and South Korea, the United Nations got involved under the leadership of the United States, which was the main actor. For the peninsula, it was a devastating event, very brutal. The memory of this conflict is still used to this day as a symbol of American aggressiveness.
And for the United States, has North Korea become secondary?
For Joe Biden, the confrontation between the United States and China constitutes the main conflict, as well as Ukraine. The North Korean issue has lost its importance in his political agenda, which is unfortunate. We can’t just wait, the problem is not going to go away. This is not only a military threat, but also a political one. For example, it undermines the credibility of the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Kim Jong-un promised that North Korea would become the world’s largest nuclear power. Has he gone mad? Should it be taken seriously?
This statement is first and foremost propaganda. But we still have to worry. My main concern is not a direct confrontation, a conventional war. Since January 2020, North Korea has been in general confinement due to Covid, which has gradually distanced it from the international community. The first risk is rather a misunderstanding: North Korea tests a missile, everything does not go as planned, it lands on South Korean soil… This could cause an immediate escalation, even if no one is there. interest.
Precisely, what are the country’s relations with South Korea and Japan (a country off the coast of which a North Korean intercontinental missile fell on November 18, causing a joint military exercise by Japan and the United States over the Japanese sea) ?
With South Korea, there have been ups and downs over the decades… The main problem is that relations cannot progress until the nuclear issue is resolved. And today, they suffer from it. These relations depend directly on those of North Korea with the United States. As it is, they cannot develop. As for Japan [dont la péninsule coréenne est une colonie de 1910 à 1945, NDLR]the memory of the colonizer is always used by propaganda to make it an imperial power, a historical enemy.
For China, is North Korea an ally? An asset in its competition with the United States?
The two countries share, as well as with Russia, the will to change the international and regional order, mainly dominated by the United States. There is a common interest. We are not witnessing a return to the Cold War bloc: it is not so much an ideological cooperation as a self-interested one. At the UN Security Council, China and Russia can veto any resolution regarding North Korea.
For us Europeans, North Korea remains a mysterious, almost indecipherable country… How can we better understand it?
Europe is not a diplomatic power in the region. The European Union and some European countries maintain relations with North Korea. But the diplomats are gone, the Covid has led to restrictions. In the past, Europe has acted on several occasions as a facilitator, organizing the dialogue. This was the case in Sweden in 2019 [où Etats-Unis et Corée du Nord ont négocié au sujet du nucléaire nord-coréen, sans déboucher sur aucune avancée, NDLR]. Europe can now play a role, try to strengthen communication, renew dialogue, because ultimately we have to talk to North Korea.
On a more personal level, what fascinates you about this country that is difficult to define?
It is one of the countries on which serious academics are less likely to work. Studying North Korea is quite difficult. But there are many things to understand. We need to continue our research. State, identity, norms, vision of the world: all these subjects must be deepened. We cannot solve the nuclear issue by thinking only in terms of security. We must also consider historical, social and economic components. That’s what interests me, and that’s what I want to contribute.