North Korea confirmed on Sunday (February 19th) that it fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Saturday as a warning to Washington and Seoul, saying the successful “surprise” exercise demonstrates its “deadly nuclear counterattack” capabilities.
On the orders of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, a Hwasong-15 missile was fired from Pyongyang airport during the afternoon, according to the state agency KCNA.
Seoul claimed to have detected the launch of an ICBM on Saturday at 5:22 p.m. local time (9:22 a.m. in France) which, according to Tokyo, flew for 66 minutes before falling in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and would be able to hit the American continent. In response, the South Korean military said on Sunday it had organized joint aerial maneuvers with the United States, mobilizing stealth aircraft and at least one American B-1B long-range bomber. Japan also conducted a joint military exercise with Washington on Sunday, the Japanese Defense Ministry said.
Not a “major” step forward
The North Korean firing comes as Seoul and Washington prepare to conduct a simulation exercise, to be held next week in the US capital, to discuss what to do if the nuclear weapon is used by Pyongyang. On Friday, North Korea thus threatened to react with “unprecedented” force to the upcoming American-South Korean maneuvers, seeing in them preparations for an armed conflict and the cause of a deterioration in the security situation on the Korean peninsula.
“On a technical level, this test is not in itself a major step forward, tempers with L’Express Antoine Bondaz, researcher and director of the “Korea Program on Security and Diplomacy” at the Foundation for Strategic Research North Korea has already successfully tested ICBMs The technology is not new, unlike the solid propulsion that North Korea says it is developing but has not yet tested (other than a ground-based engine). ).”
On the other hand, communication from Pyongyang differs from usual. “This is not an R&D test but an operational test”, underlines the expert. Concretely, the exercise shows that the technology is ready for real use against an enemy. It remains to be seen whether the United Nations Security Council will unanimously condemn this test.
“In May 2022, following an ICBM test, Russia and China vetoed a draft resolution condemning and sanctioning North Korea. A first. This demonstrates the division of the international community in a context of war in Ukraine. And North Korea, of course, benefits from it”, analyzes Antoine Bondaz.
Doctrine change
Military tensions rose on the Korean peninsula in 2022, when Pyongyang called its status as a nuclear power “irreversible” and conducted a record series of weapons tests, including ICBMs. Basically, North Korea continues to develop its nuclear and ballistic capabilities to make its deterrence credible even if its doctrine has evolved somewhat.
Nuclear force is no longer only used to defend against a possible attack, but it integrates the possibility of pre-emptive strikes. “The country therefore undertakes to use its nuclear weapons if it considers that its arsenal is about to be threatened or more broadly if the fundamental interests of the country are about to be threatened”, can we read in a note of the Foundation for Strategic Research published in November.
Is the rapprochement between South Korea and the United States the only reason for these “provocations” by the North Korean regime? According to Park Won-gon, professor at Ewha University (South Korea), the increased aggressiveness of Pyongyang could indicate a worsening of its situation on the national level. South Korean officials have recently signaled that the country could face severe food shortages after several years of self-imposed pandemic isolation. “North Korea always takes an intransigent approach and creates external crises […] to overcome its internal difficulties. Uniting the population by insisting on the American-South Korean threat is a classic North Korean attitude,” said the researcher to AFP.
Denuclearization negotiations stalled
“In the past, North Korea has been mounting the pressure to weigh in on the negotiations or obtain recognition of the United States as a nuclear state, or even a lifting of sanctions. This time, Pyongyang seems to be just trying to show its power in the world”, recently judged with L’Express Go Myong-hyun, of the Asan Institute of Political Studies.
The serenity displayed by the heir to the communist dynasty, protected by Moscow and Beijing, is reinforced by the relative impunity he has enjoyed since the start of the war in Ukraine. If the leaders of the country denied supplying arms to Russia within the framework of the conflict, they quickly lined up behind the Kremlin by recognizing the annexation of the Ukrainian provinces.
“North Korea is taking advantage of the distraction caused by the war in Europe to consolidate its status as a nuclear-weapon state that can target US territory,” said the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS). Jong-un probably sees an advantage in making it harder for the Biden administration, already busy with Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats and Xi Jinping’s military exercises around Taiwan.” Denuclearization negotiations are stalled. No announcement is expected.