Annika Winsth is above all concerned that continued rapid interest rate increases will lead to a financial crisis.
– If you end up in a financial crisis in Sweden, and in that case it becomes a housing crisis, that’s ten lost years, she says.
Winsth: Inflation on the way down
She points out that interest rates have been very low for a long time and that households and companies have not been prepared for the rapid increases of the past year.
– Sweden is significantly more sensitive to interest rates than many other countries because households borrow flexibly. That means the risk is a bit greater here.
Winsth also believes that inflation is on the way down, partly because commodity prices have fallen.
The governor of the Riksbank is not as convinced about that matter.
– It is also in our forecasts that it will come down quite quickly. The problem is that it has been in our forecasts all through 2022 and it has yet to happen.
“Tough for households”
The assessment that the interest rate will be raised by 25-50 basis points in April remains, but Thedéen does not rule out that the interest rate may remain unchanged.
What speaks for an increase is that certain indicators have developed worse than expected at the time of the previous interest rate decision, says Thedéen, but it is also not excluded that the interest rate will remain unchanged. The development in the next few weeks will be decisive.
He also points out that the banking crisis has caused the market to expect lower interest rates in the future than previously thought.
Thedéen says it will be tough for households, but disagrees with those who believe the banks have lent too much.
He says that the banks have stress tested the borrowers so that they can handle mortgage rates of 6-7 percent.