No, the pandemic has not emptied the metropolises for the benefit of the countryside, nor caused any major geographical upheaval that could be described as an “urban exodus”. These are the conclusions of a vast multidisciplinary investigationentitled “Urban exodus: a myth, realities” and piloted for two years by the observation platform for urban projects and strategies (Popsu), in partnership with the urban planning construction architecture plan (an interministerial service), the rural French, Leboncoin, SeLoger, Meilleurs Agents and La Poste.
The latter, published on February 17, challenges some prejudices linked to the health crisis. “The geography of French projections and moves in the “world after” the 2020 health crisis ultimately very closely resembles that of the “world before, that is to say mainly structured around urban centers, which concentrate jobs, services, educational structures, as well as a large part of the French population”, underlines the multidisciplinary team.
No “disenchantment with cities”
Launched in June 2021, the study invites us to “strongly qualify the idea of an urban exodus” caused by the pandemic, which has rather accelerated pre-existing trends in the crisis, note the researchers. The Covid has “generally accelerated departures from large urban centers, in particular the largest metropolises, to other territories, in the forefront of which (slightly) smaller cities and peri-urban crowns”, underlines the study. which describes this phenomenon as the continuation of urban “loosening”.
The “metropolisation”, which concentrates populations, activities and wealth in the large urban centers, is confirmed, as well as the periurbanisation, which extends “to more distant territories”.
Most moves take place between cities of the same size and more than a quarter take place within the same municipality. Furthermore, 43% of departures recorded in the first 12 months of the crisis are to towns of at least 200,000 inhabitants, contradicting the idea of a “disenchantment with towns”, while rural areas continue to represent a low share of destinations (18%), up only one point between before and after Covid.
Already at work before the Covid, the attraction of the coasts continues, in particular on the Atlantic coast, as well as the renewed interest in rural areas. “Rural areas see a sharp increase in their migratory balance after the start of the health crisis” but this phenomenon remains in the minority and concerns a lot “territories close to urban centers”.
Movers with multiple profiles
The study also undermines the “typical profile” of households likely to move in favor of the crisis. If the profile of “upper class” households, endowed with a strong socio-cultural and economic capital, exists, the reality is more diversified with flows of people in a situation of precariousness or pre-retirement.
What are the drivers of this residential mobility? For the authors of the study, they are not limited to “campaign desire”. They also cite the rise of teleworking and eco-anxiety, as well as the catalytic role of the pandemic in bringing a life-changing project to fruition. Without forgetting the “desire for space”: an extra room, an exterior (garden or balcony), even a house and greater proximity to nature. A desire difficult to satisfy in the central municipalities, given the real estate prices.
However, the tension on the local real estate markets constitutes “a strong factor in explaining residential mobility on a national scale” according to the researchers who note that, in their searches for advertisements and real estate estimates as in their moves, the in tight areas where it is increasingly difficult to buy, target less tight areas, whether urban (smaller towns), peri-urban or rural.