TOGETHER. Emmanuel Macron may not win a majority in the National Assembly, according to the latest polls on the legislative elections. In view of the first results, the match with Nupes promises to be tight.
This would be a first in the history of the Fifth Republic. Can a newly (re)elected president fail to obtain a majority in the National Assembly in the legislative elections organized in the wake of the Élysée ballot? If this has never happened before under this political regime, it could happen on June 19th. Emmanuel Macron is indeed not certain to have at least 289 deputies stamped with the Together coalition (LREM, MoDem, Horizons, Agir) at the Bourbon palace. In any case, this is what the results of several polls indicate. The latest, published this Thursday, June 9, 2022, credits the coalition behind the President of the Republic with 27% of voting intentions in the first round. A result which would place the political current only in second position, behind the Nupes, coalition of the left (28%). Especially, at 2e turn, despite the alliance of several pro-Macron parties behind the head of state, the latter could only have between 260 and 300 elected officials in the hemicycle. Together would therefore be on the razor’s edge, with no guarantee of being in the majority, but without falling into catastrophism, the probability of winning 289 deputies or more being still plausible.
If the polls are only photographs at the moment T of the voting intentions declared on the part of voters polled by institutes, they do not in any way predict the results which will be counted on Sunday evening. However, the dynamics of a match between Ensemble and Nupes has accelerated in recent days and has been confirmed above all with the results of the 1er round in the constituencies of French people living abroad: 10 of the 11 duels in the second round will pit the representative of the presidential majority against a lieutenant of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (see below). What confirm the trend of a rise in power of this union of the left.
Therefore, concern is growing on the side of Emmanuel Macron and LREM. The speeches were thus redirected against Nupes and its program of “disorder” and “submission” according to the President of the Republic, condensed from “Soviet world clichés” according to Christophe Castaner, carried by the “Gallic Chavez” as commented Bruno Le Maire. Fears are felt in the entourage of the head of state. And publicly, Olivier Véran advancing the hypothesis that the lower house of Parliament is “not in line with the program for which the President of the Republic was elected”, when Patrick Mignola, boss of the MoDem deputies, indicated “fear a electoral accident”, especially since according to the deputy Aurore Bergé, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is “the only one who exists today, in the opposition”, as reported by Le Monde. While he counted with the only Republic in March 308 deputies in 2017, on how many parliamentarians Emmanuel Macron will be able to count in the National Assembly?
As in 2017, Emmanuel Macron has forged an alliance in order to obtain the majority in the legislative elections. However, the content of the coalition set up in 2022 is very different from that of five years ago. By a simple agreement with the MoDem of François Bayrou, the President of the Republic moved to a confederation bringing together six political parties in addition to the party he founded in 2016. United under the banner “Together”, LREM, the MoDem , Agir (Franck Riester), Horizons (Edouard Philippe), Territory of Progress (Olivier Dussopt), In Common (Barbara Pompili’s party chaired by Philippe Hardouin) and the Radical Party (Laurent Hénart) have sealed a support pact for Emmanuel Macron , conducting negotiations for the distribution of constituencies. Thus, according to the agreement reached, 400 nominations were reserved for LREM, between 101 and 110 for the MoDem, as well as 58 for Horizons, the other formations each winning less than 10 constituencies.
A coalition which is however not without risk, worries one in Macronie. In particular vis-à-vis Edouard Philippe. If the former Prime Minister has always shown his loyalty to the Head of State, his political weight, but also his sympathy side (favorite political personality of the French), grant him the status of both ally and dissident of weight. in case of disagreement. Because if Emmanuel Macron does not obtain the majority (289 seats) with the only LREM candidates and it is the deputies stamped Horizons who allow him, the political force of his ex-tenant of Matignon will only be increased tenfold, him who can then brandish the threat of not voting in favor of a text emanating from the government or the parliamentary majority. In 2017, LREM had won 314 seats, ending however with 268 deputies after several splits and, therefore, without an absolute majority on its own.
For the legislative elections, far fewer polls than during the presidential election are carried out by the various institutes. However, surveys on voting intentions are carried out and make it possible to obtain a snapshot, at the moment T, of what the next National Assembly could look like. According to the latest results of the studies carried out, “Together” would win between 28% of the votes cast in the first round. A score which would be noticeably close to that of the NUPES, a margin of error of approximately 2 points being to be taken into account. On the other hand, according to the projections, it is LREM and its allies who would obtain the majority of the seats in the Bourbon palace. But as seen above, an absolute majority is far from guaranteed, since 289 seats are needed to be in the majority. According to the latest figures, Together would win between 275 and 315 places in the hemicycle. Currently, the presidential majority represents 350 seats.
While the first round of the legislative elections will only take place on Sunday June 12, 2022 in mainland France, the first results from the constituencies of French people living abroad fell on June 5. It emerged that if Together qualified in the 11 territories for the second round, the coalition is, almost everywhere, closely followed by Nupes. What to give a taste of June 12?
- 1st constituency: Roland Lescure (Together): 35.88%; Florence Roger (Nupes): 33.43%
- 2nd constituency: Eléonore Caroit (Together): 34.57%; Christian Rodriguez (Nupes): 28.20%
- 3rd constituency: Alexandre Holroyd (Together): 38.51%; Charlotte Minvielle (Nupes): 31.46%
- 4th constituency: Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade (Together): 38.93%; Cecilia Gondard (Nupes): 32.47%
- 5th constituency: Renaud Le Berre (Nupes): 27.89%; Stéphane Vojetta (diss. LREM): 24.60%
- 6th constituency: Marc Ferracci (Together): 36.49%; Magali Mangin (Nupes): 20.28%
- 7th constituency: Frédéric Petit (Together): 34.58%; Asma Rhamaoui-Claquin (Nupes): 26.06%
- 8th constituency: Meyer Habib (LR/UDI): 28.85%; Deborah Abisror De Lieme (Together): 27.78%
- 9th constituency: Karim Ben Cheïk (Nupes): 39.99%; Elisabeth Moreno (Together): 28.06%
- 10th constituency: Amélia Lakrafi (Together): 32.75%; Chantal Moussa (Nupes): 22.54%
- 11th constituency: Anne Genetet (Together): 38.14%; Dominique Vidal (Nupes): 24.79%
Did La République en Marche really become “Renaissance”?
In recent days, the news of the change of identity of La République en Marche has circulated a lot. After being called En Marche when it was founded six years ago, then LREM once Emmanuel Macron in power, the political formation had to change its name to be called “Renaissance”. The announcement was made by Stanislas Guerini, Thursday, May 5, 2022, during a press conference at party headquarters. “It is indeed a change in nature and name that we are initiating. It is a refoundation of LREM to build a presidential party which will be called Renaissance”, he explained. Exit LREM, make way for Renaissance? Not quite.
This modification is not definitive. Above all, the announcement could be premature. This is what explains Playbook, citing an inside party source. The majority would be visibly “surprised” to have learned of this announcement of the name change of the main party in the ruling coalition. This same term “Renaissance”, already used as the name for the LREM list in the 2019 European elections, should in fact be used for a “refoundation process” to merge LREM into a larger whole. This union which “will absorb the small parties”, according to the source of Playbook, should also include “Agir” and “Territories of progress”, small formations on the same political line as LREM. A hypothesis that Stanislas Guérini seemed to confirm during his visit to RTL on May 6: “We have decided to launch the creation of a new political party, which will be called Renaissance, it is not done yet, but which will bring together (…) political parties, this is the proposal that we we are going to do to our partners, I am thinking of Agir, of Territories of progress (…)”. All with the aim of “creating a broader political party”, he explained. The transition from LREM to Renaissance is therefore not for now.