After the withdrawal of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis – previously presented as a “Trump with a brain” but whose campaign never took off – here is Nikki Haley alone in the spotlight facing Donald Trump. After the Iowa caucus on January 15, the primary in small New Hampshire (north-east of the country) is being held this Tuesday, January 23. Trump remains a huge favorite but…
“At one point, there were 14 of us running,” she wrote in an email message aimed at raising funds for the rest of her campaign. “But today, it’s officially a two-person race between me and Donald Trump !” The former governor of South Carolina (2011-2017) and former Trump ambassador to the United Nations (2017-2018) does not shy away from her pleasure at being the only one still standing against the former president, who has not stopped climbing in the polls for a year.
In the final stretch before the New Hampshire vote, the fifty-year-old (she turned 52 on January 20) found a new angle of attack, putting Trump and Biden in the same bag because, according to her, they are , both too old. “Do we really want two 80-year-old candidates running for president, when our country is in disarray and the world is on fire?” she asked during a public meeting in New Hampshire.
“I’m used to people underestimating me.”
In an interview, she also points out that Trump spoke about Obama instead of Biden on several occasions. A way of suggesting that Trump, like Biden, has the cognitive problems of men his age. “This is not what America needs,” she finally explained, adding another point in passing by indicating that Trump is a “susceptible” individual, which is not an asset. in politics.
Nikki Haley, candidate for the Republican primary nomination, during a meeting in Exeter, January 21, 2024 in New Hampshire
© / afp.com/Joseph Prezioso
“I’m used to people underestimating me; it’s always fun,” readily explains the woman who was the first woman to govern South Carolina (4.6 million inhabitants). Therefore, the question is: could Nikki Haley create a surprise and become president next November or, on the contrary, is the Republican primary match already tilted in favor of Trump?
On paper, the circumstances do not seem favorable to him. In Iowa, Trump soundly beat everyone with 51% of the vote. Certainly Ron DeSantis (21% in Iowa) and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (7%) both withdrew from the race, which puts an end to the scattering of non-Trumpian votes. But neither decided to support Nikki Haley (17% in Iowa). On the contrary, two thirds of DeSantis supporters are preparing to vote for Trump. And, in New Hampshire, the polls show Trump winning by fifteen points. But, in politics, surprises are always possible.
A favorable scenario
So how, in such a situation, could Nikki Haley prevail? “There is a scenario where she could win even if it is not the most likely,” says Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). “she succeeds in the election in New Hampshire. That doesn’t necessarily mean winning, but the gap between her and Trump would have to be so small as to constitute a defeat for Trump. Then she would become competitive again.” And a dynamic could begin.
In this case, he would have a month left to promote the idea that Trump (like Biden) is too old. “For the idea to gain ground, Trump’s legal troubles would also have to become more complicated. That’s a lot of ‘ifs’ but it would allow Nikki Haley to arrive in a good position for the Nevada polls (6 and 8 February) and South Carolina (February 24), which is the state of which she was governor.”
The hypothesis is not entirely far-fetched. The proof ? A group of Wall Street billionaires, who still believe in the candidate’s chances, are organizing to raise funds and raise others after the New Hampshire primary. Some business circles dream of getting rid of Trump once and for all, no doubt worried about the global instability that his return to business could cause. “The problem is that Nikki Haley’s personality is not in keeping with the times,” continues Célia Belin of ECFR. A traditional Republican and neoconservative in the style of George W. Bush Jr., her profile does not correspond to the Party Republican as Donald Trump transformed him. That’s why I give Nikki Haley a 10% chance of succeeding,” she predicts. 10% is not much. But it’s much more than zero.
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