A few hours before the expiry of the ultimatum of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), uncertainty remains this Sunday, August 6 about a possible military intervention by the West African bloc in Niger. Two neighboring countries, Nigeria and Algeria, have issued criticism.
Why an intervention is being considered
On Sunday July 30, the Economic Community of West African States had given seven days to the putschists to restore elected President Mohamed Bazoum to his duties, under penalty of using “force”. The ultimatum will expire this Sunday at the end of the day. For the time being, the junta which took power on July 26 in Niamey, headed by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, has shown no desire to give way.
On Friday August 4, the chiefs of staff of ECOWAS “defined the contours of a” possible military intervention “against the Nigerien junta, according to an official of the regional organization. “All the elements of a possible intervention were worked out at this meeting, including the resources needed, but also how and when we are going to deploy the force,” Political Affairs and Security Commissioner Abdel-Fatau Musah told AFP. from a meeting in Abuja, Nigeria.
No details on this intervention, however, have filtered. “ECOWAS is not going to tell the putschists when and where we are going to strike,” warned Abdel-Fatau Musah, referring to an “operational decision that will be taken by the heads of state” of the West African bloc. The Niamey putschists for their part promised this week an “immediate response” to “any aggression”.
Countries ready to intervene…
Several West African armies, including Senegal, have said they are ready to send soldiers. Senegal will participate in a possible military intervention in Niger if ECOWAS decides on such an action, Senegalese Foreign Minister Aïssata Tall Sall said on Thursday. Speaking to the press in Dakar, the head of diplomacy invoked her country’s international commitments to ECOWAS and the fact that it was a “coup (d’etat) too many”.
The Senegalese minister explained the reasons why the Senegalese “soldiers” “have to go”. “The first is that we are in a community organization. Senegal has an international signature, it cannot be a member of ECOWAS and escape (its) decisions,” she said. “The second is that Senegal’s conviction is that these coups must be stopped, that’s why we are going there,” added Aïssata Tall Sall.
A source close to the Ivorian delegation in Abuja also mentioned to AFP a dispatch of armed forces, without specifying the possible number of men mobilized.
…and those who oppose
On Saturday August 5, senators from Nigeria, an ECOWAS heavyweight with its 215 million inhabitants and which shares a 1,500 km border with Niger, called on President Bola Tinubu to “strengthen the political and diplomatic option” .
According to the Nigerian press, a majority of senators expressed their opposition to a military operation during a closed meeting. However, according to the country’s Constitution, the security forces cannot fight abroad without the prior approval of the Senate, except in the event of “imminent risk or danger” for national security.
“The victims will be innocent citizens going about their daily lives,” the Northern Senators Forum said in a statement signed by its spokesperson, Suleiman Kawu Sumaila, adding that people in the north of the country would be “negatively affected. “.
On July 31, the head of the Nigerian army, General Christopher Musa, was not opposed to a military intervention. “We stand for democracy and that must continue. […] We are ready and as soon as we receive the order to intervene, we will. We are absolutely sure of succeeding.”
Saturday evening, Algeria, which is not a member of ECOWAS but shares a border of nearly 1,000 km with Niger, also expressed reservations. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune said on public television that an intervention would be “a direct threat” to his country. “There will be no solution without us (Algeria)”, he added, fearing that “the whole Sahel (not) will ignite” in the event of intervention.
The putschists in Niamey could also count on the support of two neighbours: Burkina Faso and Mali, who have warned that they would stand in solidarity with Niger and that any armed intervention would be considered a “declaration of war” against them. These countries led by military juntas are however confronted, like Niger, with recurrent jihadist violence which mobilizes their troops.
Russia for its part called on Wednesday for “dialogue” to avoid a “deterioration of the situation” in Niger, warning against any foreign armed intervention. “We consider it extremely important not to allow a further deterioration of the situation in the country, we believe that it is urgent to organize a national dialogue to restore civil peace, ensure law and order” , said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, quoted by Russian news agencies.
France’s position
France said on Saturday that it supported “with firmness and determination” the efforts of ECOWAS to defeat the putsch attempt, believing that it was at stake “for the future of Niger and the stability of the whole region”. The head of French diplomacy Catherine Colonna said Saturday morning on France Info that it was necessary “to take very seriously the threat of recourse to intervention” from ECOWAS. In another interview with RFI, she considered that with Niger, it was a “coup d’etat too many”, after those of Mali and Burkina Faso in the past two years.
Relations between the junta and the former colonial power have deteriorated in recent days. The putschists denounced Thursday evening military and security cooperation agreements with Paris, which deploys 1,500 soldiers in Niger for the fight against terrorism.
The diplomatic solution, the preferred way
The prospect of military intervention by West African countries is far from certain. The diplomatic solution continues to be preferred, according to Abdel-Fatau Musah, ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs and Security. “We want diplomacy to work,” he said. It is joined on this point by Benin, a neighboring country of Niger and a member of ECOWAS.
Several Western chancelleries have also advocated dialogue, notably Germany. Berlin called on Friday to continue “mediation efforts” with the military junta in order to find a political solution and avoid any armed intervention. “It is important that we first give way to mediation efforts and that these mediation efforts can be carried out, in the hope that a political solution will result,” said a ministry spokesperson. German Foreign Affairs.
An ECOWAS delegation, led by former Nigerian President Abdulsalami Abubakar, left Niamey overnight from Thursday to Friday after making “crisis resolution” proposals to members of the junta. For Berlin, it seems that the negotiation process is “only at its beginning”. “Because the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS are only beginning to take effect, and we also see that the cohesion […] within the armed forces is not as large as the putschists would like,” the spokesman said.
Diplomacy remains the “preferred solution” to restore constitutional order in Niger, also declared Friday the Beninese Minister of Foreign Affairs, who assured Benin’s support for ECOWAS in the event of future actions. “The position of ECOWAS with which Benin is allied is to release and restore President Bazoum to his duties,” Olushegun Adjadi Bakari told a press conference in Cotonou. “The ongoing diplomatic actions remain the preferred solution for all at this time. But if tomorrow, […] whatever actions ECOWAS would take, Benin would be part of this action as a member of ECOWAS,” said the minister.