The NFP is already considering censuring the Barnier government and the RN is waiting to make a decision without ruling out the option. A joint vote by the two political forces against the executive is not impossible.
The future of the Barnier government hangs by a thread. Lacking a majority in the National Assembly, the executive knows it is at the mercy of a motion of censure. However, the Prime Minister hopes to be able to govern without a clear majority in the chamber, like Elisabeth Borne and Gabriel Attal before him. Because if he does not have a majority, no opposition group dominates the National Assembly and the united vote of two groups that are complete opposites, the New Popular Front (NFP) and the National Rally (RN), is necessary to overthrow Michel Barnier’s government.
A motion of censure must be adopted by an absolute majority of elected representatives present in the chamber at the time of the vote to succeed, i.e. 289 votes if all 577 deputies are sitting on election day. The NFP has 193 deputies, while the RN has 126. No force can therefore hope to push the government out alone, but with the reserve of votes from the other camp, the scenario becomes possible. It remains to be seen whether such a rapprochement, even exceptional, will take place.
Michel Barnier and his 39 ministers are in any case preparing to face a motion of censure, probably the first in a long series. The NFP has announced that it will file a motion of censure as soon as the ordinary session of the National Assembly opens, after the Prime Minister’s general policy speech on October 1. Far from being a surprise since it was promised against any government that is not left-wing, the text has little chance of succeeding, because the RN is unlikely to censure the government so quickly. “I know very well that Marine Le Pen has decided to give her blessing to the Barnier government” and therefore that the motion of censure “is probably doomed to failure” acknowledged the socialist Olivier Faure on France 2September 22.
Censorship of the RN remains possible
The first motion of censure should not signal the end of the Barnier government. A reprieve allowed by the RN which refuses to censure the executive before having heard of its policy. The far-right party does not rule out overthrowing the government later if it does not satisfy it. Knowing that the left is determined to censure the executive and the government is lacking support, the RN likes to play the role of referee and takes advantage of the situation to make itself heard by Matignon. “We will judge on the evidence. […] “It is we who will decide whether or not this government has a future” declared RN MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy on France Inter September 23.
Marine Le Pen, the party’s leader, even set the conditions for her non-participation in a censure: a firm position on immigration and security and no tax increases for the working classes, the introduction of proportional representation in legislative elections and finally respect for RN elected officials and their voters. Michel Barnier promised on this last point to treat far-right MPs like the others. But the word does not seem to have been heard by all the ministers: Antoine Armand, the Minister of the Economy, considered the RN as outside the “republican arc” on France Inter September 24. If the Bercy tenant was put back in his place by the Prime Minister, this outing should not be to the RN’s taste and could push it to censure the government sooner than expected… Especially since the composition of the executive does not appeal to Jordan Bardella who sees “a government that has no future”. Fearing a backlash, the Prime Minister would have called Marine Le Pen according to the Figaro to answer for his minister.
On the right, Eric Ciotti, who announced that he was leaving the Republican party, made it known on RTL that he “will vote for a motion of censure if there are taxes that hit both the French and businesses”. However, the Prime Minister has several times opened the way to an increase in taxes for certain categories of people and businesses, particularly the wealthiest, before the vote on the 2025 budget.
A joint vote by the left and the far right against the government
The Barnier government is clinging to the most optimistic scenario for it: the failure of a censure caused by the mutual refusal of the NFP and the RN to vote for a text issued by the other camp. But a motion of censure is less an alliance of two camps than the opposition of several forces to the government. A joint vote is therefore conceivable, but it must be able to be justified to the voters of the respective camps. However, the RN, which sees very right-wing profiles accessing key positions such as the Ministry of the Interior, still has few arguments other than the presence, too numerous according to it, of Macronists in the government.
We would therefore have to wait for the examination of a text or bill to observe the RN’s opposition to the government, and possibly support for a censure. On a text that would oppose both the far right and the left to the government, like the repeal of the pension reform defended by both camps, a motion of censure could prevail. In this case, non-support for a censure due to a refusal to vote like the left or the far right could be difficult to justify to voters.
The threat of censorship may come from within
More unexpectedly, support for a motion of censure could come from the ranks of Macron’s party. The presidential party and allied political parties (MoDem, Horizons, UDI) support the government since they participate in it, but the left wing of the coalition could dissociate itself and oppose the executive. Some elected officials like Sacha Houlié left the group of deputies Ensemble pour la République (EPR) to sit as non-registered and not be required to give any forced support. Others like Stella Dupont do not rule out a potential censure: “It’s possible, even if it’s not at all what I want. We need stability, work, compromise. But we need open, pragmatic people. The extremely hard line of many ministers worries me,” she said on RMCAccording to her, the “government is too right-wing and does not reflect the aspirations of the French.”