The NFP promises to table a motion of censure against the government of Michel Barnier, but the text will need the support of the RN, or others, to be adopted.
How long will the Barnier government stay in place? With a parliamentary base of only 220 deputies, the Prime Minister is in a precarious situation. As soon as a majority of deputies consider that the line of their government is not legitimate or capable of assuming power, a motion of censure should be passed.
The Barnier government already knows that it will face a motion of censure in the coming days. The objective for him, as he delivers his general policy speech this Tuesday in the Assembly, is therefore to hold out in the face of opposition from the left… by securing the tacit support of the far right . And this for as long as possible. The future of the Prime Minister and his executive therefore hangs by a fragile thread, hence the eagerness and virulence with which Michel Barnier “reframed” his Minister of the Economy, Antoine Armand, after this the latter said he wanted to exclude the National Rally (RN) from the “republican arc” and from discussions at Bercy to establish the 2025 budget.
The first motion of censure against the Barnier government should be tabled very quickly: from the opening of the parliamentary session in the National Assembly, this Tuesday, October 1, after the Prime Minister’s general policy speech?
The left has been promising since August to censor any government that is not left-wing. If the PS indicates that it will be the author of the text, it is indeed the entire NFP and its 193 deputies who will support it. this Tuesday, October 1, the first secretary of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, declared on TF1 that their motion would be examined in the Assembly “next week”. A timing undoubtedly well calculated, to allow deputies from other political sides to take the time to reflect.
To succeed, a motion of censure must be adopted by an absolute majority of elected officials present in the hemicycle during the vote – 289 votes if all 577 deputies are seated. The left is therefore missing almost a hundred votes to overthrow the government, and this reserve of votes is mainly found among the 126 RN deputies.
The RN will censor or not censor?
If the left is determined to overthrow the government, the RN has decided not to censor Michel Barnier’s executive before the latter has clarified his political line. The flame party does not rule out voting, or even tabling, a motion of censure later if the government disappoints it. It is therefore in the position of arbiter that Marine Le Pen’s camp places itself and it makes it known: the president of the RN group in the Assembly invited the Prime Minister to remind his ministers of the “philosophy of government” – or rather the sword of Damocles which hovers above them. Because the RN has not planned to vote on a motion of censure a priori, but it has set conditions for the government and threatens to censure it if these are not respected. Marine Le Pen demanded a firm position on immigration and security in addition to the absence of tax increases for the middle classes, the introduction of proportional representation in the legislative elections and finally respect for the elected representatives of the RN and his voters.
The government now knows what to expect and what to do to avoid seeing the far right support a motion of censure. “We will judge on the evidence. […] It is we who will decide whether or not this government has a future” recalled the RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy on France Inter on September 23.
Especially since the RN can count on a new ally with Eric Ciotti’s group which announced its departure from the Les Républicains party. The deputy for Alpes-Maritimes made it known on RTL that he “will vote for a motion of censure if there are taxes that hit both the French and businesses.” However, the Prime Minister has several times opened the way to an increase in taxes for certain categories of people and businesses, particularly the wealthiest, before the vote on the 2025 budget.
A motion of censure and a joint vote of the NFP and the RN
The Prime Minister clings to the most optimistic scenario for his government: motions of censure doomed to failure by the mutual refusal of the NFP and the RN to vote on a text issued by the other camp. But a motion of censure is more a means of opposing a government than an alliance between two political forces. A joint vote for the left and the far right is therefore possible, but it must be able to be justified to the voters of the respective camps.
However, the RN, which sees very right-wing profiles access key positions such as the Ministry of the Interior and can hope to be heard by the Prime Minister, still has few arguments against the government, other than the presence, too according to him, there are many Macronists in the ministries.
But a disagreement could arise during the examinations of the next legal texts, starting with that concerning the 2025 budget, and push the RN to support a motion of censure. On a text which would pit both the far right and the left against the government, like the repeal of the pension reform defended by both camps, a motion of censure could prevail.
The threat of censorship may come from macronia
More unexpected, support for a motion of censure could come from the ranks of the macronie. The presidential party and the allied political groups (MoDem, Horizons, UDI) support the government since they participate in it, but the left wing of the coalition could dissociate itself and oppose the executive, especially after the very right-wing declarations by Bruno Retailleau, Minister of the Interior.
Some elected officials like Sacha Houlié left the group of deputies Together for the Republic (EPR) to sit as non-registered and not be required to have any forced support. Like him, other elected officials, like Stella Dupont, do not rule out potential censorship: “It’s possible, even if it’s not at all what I want. We need stability, work, compromise. But we need open, pragmatic people. The extremely hard line of many ministers worries me,” she said. RMC. According to her, the “government is too right-wing and does not reflect the aspirations of the French”.
A limited number of motions of censure?
However, there is no limit to the number of motions that can be filed. The only rules provide that each text must be signed by one tenth of the elected representatives of the National Assembly, i.e. 58 deputies, and that each elected representative cannot sign more than three motions of censure per parliamentary session, that is to say between October and June. The left has 193 elected officials, it can alone table up to nine motions of censure. RN elected officials can defend at least six of them and that’s without counting on the other deputies who could sign motions.