The Iranian administration frees journalists and political prisoners.
Such news was carried out from Iran towards the end of the year.
For the first time in years, the rules on Iran’s social order are relaxed instead of being tightened, says a professor at Tehran University Raffaele Maurello.
The background is influenced, among other things, by the fear of the Iranian political elite in the revolution, a crashing economy and a desperate attempt to find partners in the tightening situation of the Middle East.
Italian Maurello has lived in Iran for a total of over 25 years.
The professor predicts that the Iranians will soon be receiving new civic freedoms.
– The change in Iran is already reflected in the street scene. For example, the notorious chastity police are hardly seen, Maurello says.
The professor considers it likely that Iran will soon be relaxing the access to citizens and social media. In addition, the professor believes that Iran may have pardoned political prisoners in the near future.
“All this is done because the most important task of Iran’s political leadership is currently to combine the people,” explains Maurello.
Iran’s new president turned the sled
Iran is the Islamic Republic. The country’s administrative system is based on Islamic law and religious principles.
According to Maurello, in the West, Iran is often misunderstood as a dictatorship or a religious society, although religiousness is more reflected in the country as part of culture and national identity. Religion does not play a key role in political decision -making.
Iran neither does democracy. In addition to the President and Parliament, the power is exercised by a religious authority that dictates, for example, who is allowed to participate in the elections.
In the 21st century, the hard-line conservatives have been in power more often than Iran’s new reformists. Part of it is due to the union between conservative and religious authority.
Conservative administration has restricted the freedom of expression of Iranians, civil liberties and, for example, stricter dress rules and more severe punishments.
In 2023, Iran was executed at least 834 people, compared with 246 in 2022.
Iran began to change rapidly after the conservative president Ebrahim raisi Died in a helicopter accident last May. Premature presidential elections won the renewal Masud pezeškian.
According to Maurello, it seems that Iran’s new political leadership has taken the distance to the tight line of the Ebrahim Rais season.
The restrictions on the season resulted in extensive protests. Particularly In the maid of amin Death in the hands of the chastity police in 2022 caused turmoil in society.
– The Iranian population is young and wants to get involved in globalization. Women are very active in society and universities. Civil society and journalists are actively fighting for their freedoms, Maurellello describes.
In part, the controversial Hijab law also went on ice.
Iranian authorities began to control use of the Hijab scarf with face recognition programs in 2023 to identify women who violate dress rules. Penalty for a misguided scarf was to be tightened in mid -December.
The new political leadership wants to avoid increasing dissatisfaction with citizens, says Maurello.
The situation in the Middle East became tightened
One of the reasons why Iran changes is related to the tightening situation in the Middle East.
In the fall, Israel and Iran drifted to the brink of military conflict as Iran fired hundreds of missiles in Israel.
Israel Kosti by destroying several developed S -300 air defense systems in Iran.
Iran’s attack on Israel was originally revenge that Israel had destroyed most of the military force of Hizbollah, an ally in Iran, Lebanon.
– Iran’s political elite and security elite do not want war with Israel. Iran’s political leadership realizes that it cannot respond to Israel, who has support from the United States and NATO, says Maurello.
In December Iran’s ally Bašar al-Assad The administration fell in Syria. Former President Raisi supported Al-Assad financially, but Iran’s new political leadership reduced the support of al-Assad, as keeping Al-Assad began to be expensive for the Iranians.
-Many Iranians were not happy with Iran to spend a lot of money to support al-Assad. If Ebrahim rais had been in power, support to Al-Assad would probably have been continued, Maurello says.
In a short time, Iran has lost several of his important allies. Now the gaze has turned to Russia and China, with whom Iran trades.
However, Maurello believes that Iran would like to improve his relationships to the west.
Professor does not consider impossible that Iran would even be ready to cooperate with US president Donald Trump with.
The US -Iranian relationship between the United States and Iran became extreme in 2020 when the US killed the Iranian general Qassem Suleiman.
According to Maurello, Trump’s choice as president aroused both wishes and fears among the Iranians.
– Trump’s success as a businessman appeals to many Iranians. On the other hand, many remember that the United States withdrew from the Iranian nuclear agreement in 2018 under Trump.
In addition to external problems, Iranian changes have been influenced by internal problems.
Maurello believes that the change in Iran is ultimately accelerated by the country’s economic problems.
Iranians are used to paying only a fraction of the actual cost of electricity, fuel and water. The Conservative Board did not dare to raise energy prices for fear of protests.
– The previous government promised the Iranians a terrestrial paradise, but citizens were able to experience power outages and prices rising.
Maurello believes that the Iranians might have withstand the restrictions of the Conservative Board if it had improved the economic situation in the country.
Maurello says that the situation in Iran became unsustainable. The Iranian government could no longer have been just sitting and waiting.