New VW plant boosts St. Thomas’s 2051 population forecast by 15K

An updated economic report projects St. Thomas’s population will grow to about 80,000 by 2051.

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Watson and Associates Economists Ltd., a Mississauga-based economic consulting firm, was retained in 2022 to prepare a population, employment and housing forecast by St. Thomas to consider updates to the city’s official plan.

Following Volkswagen’s 2023 announcement it would build a $7-billion EV battery plant in St. Thomas scheduled to open in 2027, the firm was again retained to re-evaluate its report.

Projections in the updated report increased significantly from the consulting firm’s initial forecasts.

“My only comparison would be between 1871 and 1881 when the railways came to St. Thomas,” Coun. Steve Peters said. “The population in 1871 was about 1,800 people and by 1881 it was 10,000 people.”

In 2022, Watson and Associates projected the city’s population to increase from 47,500 to 65,100 between 2026 and 2051.

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After the re-evaluation, the firm estimates the city will grow from 48,600 in 2026 to 79,500 in 2051. Statistics Canada’s census recorded 43,000 residents recorded in 2021.

At Monday’s meeting, Adam Fischer, presenting to council on behalf of Watson and Associates, said the city’s projected population growth of 36,500 over the next three decades “would really suggest St. Thomas is one of the fastest-growing municipalities in the province.”

St. Thomas Mayor Joe Preston said he’s happy with the city’s growth and that city council is up to the task of ensuring there will be enough homes for newcomers.

“We’ve got cranes in the air for the first time in forever and so we’re moving forward on it,” Preston said Tuesday. “It’s a daunting task that we feel up to, but there’s a lot of work to do over the next decade and more.”

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On Tuesday, Peters said though the report was “focused in on St. Thomas,” he thought the city’s projected growth was indicative of the region.

Mike Moffatt, an economist and assistant professor at Western University‘s Ivey Business School, said the London region “is one of the fastest-growing places in Ontario or in Canada.”

Highlighting the Forest City’s growth, Moffatt said, “The city of London as of 2023, had a higher population than what was forecast in the London plan for the year 2035.”

Moffatt said cities like St. Thomas and Woodstock’s growth stems more from people moving from other places in Ontario such as Toronto.

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Fischer said Watson and Associates employment forecast projected about 16,000 new jobs by 2051, about half of which are anticipated in the industrial sector. The Volkswagen plant is expected to employ about 3,000 people, but indirect employment is expected to add 3,000 positions.

Watson and Associates projected the city would need to address housing also.

The report’s initial estimates indicated 9,400 homes would need to be built between 2021 and 2051 to keep up with population growth, a figure that jumped to 15,300 following the firm’s reassessment.

Moffatt said an official plan that’s realistic about population growth and lays out how growth is expected over the long term is crucial for expanding communities.

“We’ve guaranteed the employment, now we just have to keep working on the rest of the stuff that goes with a growing community (like) housing, parks and roads,” Preston said.

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@BrianWatLFPress

The Local Journalism Initiative is funded by the Government of Canada

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