End of wearing a mask outdoors and compulsory teleworking, reopening of nightclubs and return of standing concerts… Health restrictions to fight the pandemic in France will be gradually reduced during the month of February, according to announcements by Jean Castex Thursday evening. The executive is facing a paradoxical situation: if the number of positive cases continues to increase – and to break records at more than 300,000 daily contaminations on the average of the last seven days -, the pressure on the resuscitation services tends to decrease.
“We are going to enter a contrasting period”, summed up Thursday, in a notice published shortly before the government’s announcements, the scientific Council, which advises the executive on crisis management. He also discusses in this document the forecasts for Omicron and its impact on the hospital, as well as the possible emergence of new variants.
- Hospitals still under tension until mid-March
Hospital admissions are starting to decrease, but the pressure is not going to improve anytime soon. The specialists of the Scientific Council judge that “the 5th wave linked to the Omicron variant remains at a very high level at the national level with an epidemic resurgence possibly linked to the resumption of school life” and “its impact on the healthcare system will continue. permanently until mid-March 2022.”
According to their projections, the health system will be able to hold “only if the reduction of contacts and the conservation of barrier gestures continue during the coming weeks”. And the scientists insist: “This double message of hope and caution must be carried collectively.” The preservation of barrier gestures is therefore essential for the Scientific Council, which also advises to continue the mass screening strategy and to apply the “Test, Alert, Protect” strategy again. Without forgetting the continuation of the booster dose campaign and without excluding the possibility of injecting a fourth dose.
The application of the vaccination pass, voted at the beginning of the week by the parliament, “should also make it possible to increase the primary vaccination among the non-vaccinated, in particular at risk”, specifies the opinion.
- Monitoring the evolution of the epidemic in children
In its opinion, the Scientific Council also takes stock of the situation among at-risk and special populations, such as children who have never been so numerous to enter hospital for Covid-19. According to the data, there are now 820 cases of children with pediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS) in France, of which 744 are attributable to the virus.
On the other hand, there is “no massive influx and the admission figures have been stable among 0-9 year olds since January 11. In addition, the peak of admissions for bronchiolitis (RSV infection) has passed, with downward sloping admissions for RSV”, underline the scientists who conclude that “the Omicron variant has infected a very large number of children during the last 15 days. The follow-up of these children in the short term is important to monitor the possible occurrence of PIMS (pediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome). The concern remains moderate”.
On the other hand, the impact of the pandemic on the mental health of children and adolescents “remains major”. “The number of visits to the emergency room for suicidal gestures for children under 15 remains generally high compared to the two previous years (with peaks of + 40%), the same for mood disorders”, notes the opinion which alert to this situation and stresses the importance of remaining “attentive” to the most fragile students given the difficult situation at school “due to the high circulation of the virus and consequently the very large number of infected children” and closed classes.
- The beginning of the end in March-April?
Increase in herd immunity thanks to Omicron, wide vaccination coverage… The signs of an improvement in the epidemic in France are emerging and could even announce the beginning of the end of the fifth wave as early as March-April. However, the Scientific Council warns of the possibility of the emergence of a new variant, “very difficult to anticipate”.
Three scenarios are then possible according to the opinion of the experts: that of a new highly transmissible variant but even less severe; that of a variant approaching previous variants in terms of severity; or that of a variant which escapes the vaccine. “In any case, the capacities of surveillance, epidemio-clinical systems in order to very quickly define the characteristics of the new variant will be essential. They must therefore be anticipated and prepared”, warns the document.
If the vaccine plays a decisive role in the response to the epidemic, the Scientific Council nevertheless underlines that the strategy “cannot be exclusively based on vaccination, in any case with current vaccines. The recent management of the Omicron wave has shown that with a variant with very high transmissibility, it is necessary to limit the level of viral circulation, based on a limited but significant drop in contacts and an individual optimization of protective measures. may also likely contribute to limiting the emergence of new variants.”